Justin Jeffersons’ 2023-’24 season was shortened due to a hamstring injury he suffered in Week 5. He played 8 games with more than a 75% snap share. In those games, Jefferson averaged 11.4 targets, 7.9 receptions, 127.4 yards, and 0.63 touchdowns per game. That gave Jefferson an average of 20.4 points per game in half-PPR formats in that time span.
That would’ve been 1st amongst Wide Receivers in 2023 if he kept that pace up for the entire season. There will be some concern with Jefferson’s production now that Kirk Cousins is on the Atlanta Falcons, however, Jefferson did not play with Cousins for his last 5 games last season due Cousins tearing his Achilles in Week 8. In 4 of those 5 games, Jefferson played more than 20% of the snaps and averaged 11 targets, 7.5 targets, 119 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game.
That gave him an average of 18.4 half-ppr points per game, which was not far off his average with Cousins at the beginning of the season. Nick Mullens was Jefferson’s quarterback during that span, which should give managers some comfort in knowing Jefferson can get it done without Cousins at the helm.
The Vikings will head into this season with incoming rookie JJ McCarthy likely as the starting quarterback and Sam Darnold backing him up. Despite the move from Cousins to McCarthy being perceived as a downgrade, Jefferson’s fantasy impact should stay relatively the same, especially when factoring in that TJ Hockenson is likely to miss at least the first half of the season.
With Hockenson out of the lineup, the Vikings' only other proven receivers are Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson. With TJ Hockenson injured, these two should be heavily relied upon. Last year, the Vikings threw the ball on 63.31% of their plays, which ranked third highest in the NFL.
With Kevin O’Connell’s propensity to throw the ball and the targets likely to be heavily funneled to just two targets while Hockenson is injured, Justin Jefferson is in line for another massive fantasy season.
Our consensus projections for Jefferson in the 2024 season would be: 106 receptions, 1541 yards, 11 touchdowns through the air and 1 carry for 4 yards and 0 rushing touchdowns.
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