Enrollment steady for local colleges, but warning signs present

With stagnant birth rates shrinking the pool of potential college applicants and many prospective students alarmed by the growing cost of a traditional four-year liberal arts degree, higher education appears set to face a reckoning and reordering in the near future.

Though the state is still not on pace to reach the goal it set in 2015 that at least 70% of Minnesota age 25 through 54 have some form of post-secondary degree by 2025, Minnesota colleges and universities do appear reasonably healthy in the short term.

Last fall, college enrollment rose for the first time in 14 years, and state leaders are hopeful that trend will grow this fall, thanks to the North Star Promise, a state program providing a tuition-free education for students from families making less than $80,000 a year.

The state’s ability to grow its college educated workforce appears to be hampered by ongoing disparities. Despite a reputation for inclusivity, the educational achievement gap between white students and students of color remains larger in Minnesota than almost any other state.

This inequality extends to higher education and has hurt Minnesota’s ability to grow its college educated workforce. Today, 68.7% of white Minnesotans aged 25 to 54 have a higher education degree, compared to just 40.5% of Black Minnesotans and 35.5% of Hispanic Minnesotans.

Advocates hope that the North Star Promise will not only help to close that higher education achievement gap but also reverse recent trends which have seen Minnesota lose more college students than it attracts, a trend which is likely worsening the state’s dire workforce shortage.

Even if Minnesota continues to boost its share of workers with some form of post-secondary degree, demographic stagnation and changing economic conditions could badly hurt smaller liberal arts colleges which draw much of their student body from nearby communities.

To project trends in college enrollment based on factors such as regional differences, birth rates, immigration rates and other demographic data, Carleton College Economics Professor Nathan Grawe has devised the Higher Education Demand Index for his 2018 book Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education.

Based on the 2002 Education Longitudinal Study and the 2011 American Community Survey, Grawe’s formula projects steep declines in attendance at regional four year universities across the Midwest, though enrollment in the Twin Cities is projected to remain steady.

Grawe’s figures suggested that prestigious and selective colleges will likely be able to shield themselves from declining enrollment. On the other side of the spectrum, community colleges appear to be gaining popularity among students focused on value and return on investment.

Local impact

This year alone, South Central College has seen a remarkable 22% increase in applications, with interest strong in both the college’s workforce training programming and its liberal arts pathway, according to Vice President of Academic Affairs Laura Attenberger.

Attenberger said that, in addition to the lower (or for students who qualify for the North Star Promise, free) tuition and convenience, smaller class sizes have helped to draw students looking to prepare for an in-demand career.

South Central’s “pathways” programming, developed in coordination with Faribault High School and local businesses, provides a particularly value-oriented approach to higher education, allowing students to earn credits in High School and transition into a good paying job fast.

While local private colleges are certainly affected by shifting demographics and student preferences, Carleton, St. Olaf and Gustavus all enjoy the benefit of prestigious reputations as they adapt to changes in the higher education marketplace.

As traditional liberal arts colleges which place a heavy emphasis on learning on-campus and inside the classroom, the three local private colleges faced significant shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic, but have since seen enrollment recover.

St. Olaf College’s Director of Public Relations Kat Dodge touted the college’s strong bond rating and the growth of its student body after the pandemic-stunted incoming classes of 2020 and 2021, which were the College’s smallest in the past decade.

At Carleton College, Vice President and Treasurer Eric Runestad noted that enrollment has recovered after about a 5% drop in 2020. Thanks to its strong national and international reputation, Carleton is able to be highly selective, admitting less than one in five applicants.

Even though high demand has helped ensure that Carleton can run a balanced budget, Runestad said that the college still faces challenges from high inflation, employee turnover and the increased aid the college is providing to fulfill its commitment to meeting the demonstrated need of all students.

Recently, a major challenge for public and private colleges alike has been the rocky rollout of the FAFSA Simplification Act. Intended to make the process of applying for and determining financial aid easier, the new FAFSA has so far caused just one headache after another.

Passed by Congress back in 2020, the FAFSA overhaul had strong bipartisan support and was supposed to cut the number of questions on the form from 100 to fewer than 40 while changing the underlying formulas to provide more aid for students in need.

The ambitious plan represented the most ambitious overhaul of the application since its creation, but it hasn’t gone well with design flaws, technical problems and delays making it very difficult for prospective students to get a clear handle on potential college costs.

Congressional Republicans have pointed the finger at the Biden Administration, while the Administration has blamed Congress for inadequate funding. In response, local colleges like Gustavus have tried to adapt by delaying enrollment deposit deadlines.

Gustavus Vice President for Enrollment Management Kim Frisch said that, while estimates of financial aid were sent out to students in March, it has still not been able to submit official offers to about 1,000 students, many of whom are still weighing their college options.

On the whole, about 30% fewer students have submitted their FAFSA applications this year compared to last year. Frisch worries that it could torpedo the momentum the college has made recently, with 2023 marking an increase in first year enrollment after three years of decline.

“Every day it continues to be a new challenge and obstacle for schools like Gustavus, and really all schools,” said Frisch.