Heat pumps are ‘cheapest, healthiest’ way to meet Minnesota’s climate goals, local coalition says

If Minnesota wants to reach its goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, the state must rapidly cut greenhouse gas emissions from buildings, a sector where pollution is still on the rise.

A path to phasing out building emissions exists, according to a new report commissioned by Clean Heat Minnesota, a diverse group of energy experts, cities, community service organizations, and consumer advocates.

The report, called the Minnesota Building Decarbonization Analysis , shows that billions of dollars in investments and dedicated planning will be needed to help the state hit its climate targets. But doing so is possible, and best accomplished through mass electrification, the report found.

“Clean heat is in reach, and fully electrifying our homes is likely to be the cheapest and healthiest way to meet our climate goals,” said Carolina Ortiz, associate executive director of Comunidades Organizando el Poder y la Acción Latina (COPAL), a member of the Clean Heat Coalition. “We can’t leave anyone behind, and there’s no time to waste.”

Minnesota is making progress on its climate goals, according to a 2023 state report . Greenhouse gas emissions are 23% below 2005 levels today, with significant reductions in electricity generation and modest improvements in the transportation sector. But residential and industrial buildings are emitting more greenhouse gasses than ever before, with a 14% increase from 2005 levels due to their reliance on natural gas.

Governor Tim Walz announced the Minnesota Climate Action Framework in 2022, which aims to reduce emissions by 50% from 2005 levels by 2030 and reach net-zero emissions — where more carbon is being soaked up than emitted — by 2050.

“We need emissions to be going down and they’re going up,” said Annie Levenson-Falk, executive director of the Citizens Utility Board, a consumer advocacy group.

Building emissions can be reduced by improving insulation and weatherization, or through major appliance changes, like switching to electrically powered heat pumps or changing from gas stoves to induction cooktops.

Heat pump it up

The Clean Heat Coalition hired Massachusetts research firm Synapse Energy Economics to study the best ways for Minnesota to decarbonize its buildings.

Their research examines two pathways to get there: one embracing full electrification of building heating and cooling, the other using a combination of electrification and renewable natural gas, which can be collected from waste processing facilities such as landfills and anaerobic digesters used to process food scraps.

Both scenarios would cost billions of dollars to implement but bring long-term energy savings and health care savings by decreasing pollution. Transitioning statewide to fully powering buildings by electricity would cost about $40 billion, the report found. That’s cheaper than relying on a mix of electrification and using natural gas derived from renewable sources, which is projected to cost around $54 billion.

Both routes would deliver health benefits by slashing air pollution, Levenson-Falk said.

Under either strategy, the report calls for massive adoption of electrically powered heat pumps to power heating and cooling. The state should encourage all Minnesotans to adopt heat pumps when replacing old furnaces, and sales of heat pumps should hit 100,000 per year by 2030, according to the report.

The federal Inflation Reduction Act offers tax credits with an extra $2,000 for households seeking to install a heat pump. Minnesota has its own heat pump rebate program expected to launch in 2025 that will offer up to $4,000 in savings.

“Aggressive adaptation of air source heat pumps is incredibly key,” Ortiz said.

The energy-saving benefits of heat pumps can be maximized through the implementation of geothermal systems, which use stable temperatures below ground as a power source, the report found. Geothermal district networks, like the one proposed at The Heights development in East St. Paul, make it easier to electrify heating and cooling needs.

But old buildings can add geothermal systems to boost their decarbonization efforts, too. Sabathani Community Center in south Minneapolis is transitioning from a zero on the federal EnergyStar efficiency rating system to a clean energy hub . The African American community center started with LED lighting and smart thermostats, and just won $6 million from the Minnesota Legislature to fund a geothermal system that will power heat pumps to regulate its building temperature.

Increased electric demand

An electrically powered Minnesota could double grid demand at peak times, the report found, with demand expected to rise by 93% by 2050.

With appropriate planning, that demand can be managed and met, the coalition believes. Electricity use saw massive gains in the 1990s and early 2000s, Levenson-Falk said, and that growth was managed.

Electrifying buildings should bring savings to consumers, the report found. The owner of an electrified home could expect to save $190 per year on utility bills over the next 20 years.

The report recommends trying to electrify buildings and scale back natural gas infrastructure at a neighborhood scale. That should help manage demand by increasing electricity needs in geographic clusters instead of everywhere at once.

The coalition argues that the Minnesota Public Utilities Commision — a governor-appointed board that regulates energy providers — should be deliberate in planning out mass electrification and consider incentives that enable utilities to retire natural gas infrastructure early.

“To ensure the transition is affordable and equitable, the state should start planning today,” Levenson-Falk said.

The Clean Heat Coalition said they commissioned the study to jumpstart the conversation on decarbonizing the building sector. The urgency of the climate crisis is now reflected in state goals to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, but getting there will require action and policy commitments. The coalition said they are in regular contact with the Minnesota Department of Commerce and utility providers about their vision.

“We also need a mandate from the state,” said Margaret Cherne-Hendrick, head of investment and innovation at Fresh Energy, a Minnesota nonprofit.

The post Heat pumps are ‘cheapest, healthiest’ way to meet Minnesota’s climate goals, local coalition says appeared first on Sahan Journal .