FALSE PROMISES: Think tank presentation argues Minnesota is failing young people

A nation, or state’s, future will be determined by its young people.

That’s the thinking behind the False Promises tour, a traveling presentation from the Center of the American Experiment, which argues that progressive policies are failing young people in Minnesota.

A group of Owatonnans gathered Wednesday for the local stop of the tour, hearing data gleaned from polling and focus groups of young Minnesotans.

The Center of the American Experiment is an organization that advocates for conservative principles in Minnesota governance. Owatonna is one of 16 communities across the state included on the tour.

The touring presentation draws heavily from a poll of 300 Minnesotans between the ages of 18 and 34 conducted by the Center earlier this year.

According to Communications Director Bill Walsh, 90% of young people polled reported that they expected to be economically worse off than their parents, and 68% said they expected the next generation to be worse off than their own. The poll also indicated mixed to low trust in government.

Walsh suggested young people are “not buying” messaging from Gov. Tim Walz that Minnesota is a good place for them to live.

While 81% of those polled reported they were dissatisfied with the direction the country is going, only 45% said they were dissatisfied with the direction Minnesota is headed and 46% said taxes are too high in Minnesota. However, the majority reported they perceive Minnesota as a good place to grow their career and raise a family.

Walsh said the positivity of responses was initially perplexing in light of the fact that Minnesota is experiencing a net loss in young people as they move to other states.

“We stared at this for awhile, then we realized we’re missing one big point. We didn’t ask anybody that’s already left, because they left. The people not represented in this poll number are people that already made the decision to leave or that decision not to come. So this is a poll of people that decided to stay,” he said.

Walsh and policy fellow Catrin Wigfall offered several explanations for why more young people are leaving rather than coming to Minnesota, highlighting the lack of affordable housing, childcare and other pressing concerns.

The majority of young people polled reported they were concerned about their ability to afford home ownership.

Wigfall cited a 2019 study from Housing First Minnesota , a trade association of the residential building industry, that found building a home in Lake Elmo would cost $47,000 more than building an identical home in Hudson, a mere 10 miles away across the Wisconsin border.

She argued Minnesota building codes, energy saving rules and land use restrictions like minimum lot sizes are responsible for the housing shortage.

Of those polled, 64% reported they were concerned about public safety, which Wigfall attributed to failures in state leadership.

“Too many Minnesota leaders vilify the police. They’re making it harder for the police to do their job. They’re making it harder for the police to attract and recruit new officers,” said Wigall.

She argued the Minnesota legislature did not adequately respond to the rise in carjackings in the Twin Cities during the pandemic.

In defining carjacking as a distinct crime from robbery, the legislature left the severity of sentencing up to the Minnesota Sentencing Guidelines Commission. The Center lobbied for increased penalties for carjacking, which the commission put into effect last year.

Wigfall said Minnesota legislators need to pass laws to “close the revolving door of justice.”

Walsh said young Minnesotans have good reason to fear for their safety.

“Crime is one of those, perception is reality. Statistics don’t even matter if young people in our presentation today or anybody doesn’t feel safe. So what’s being done to make Minnesotans feel safe? It’s not an irrational fear. It’s a real fear. The data supports it,” said Walsh.

According to data from the Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension, incidences of murder and aggravated assault rates in Minnesota have fallen since their peak in 2021, but both remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels.

While those forms of violent crime remain high, there are some exceptions. The number of rapes reported in Minnesota fell dramatically in 2023, reaching one of the lowest levels seen since a surge in the early ‘90s. According to the BCA, overall crime per capita in Minnesota was lower last year than it’s been since 1965.

Citing data from the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), Wigfall noted a downward trend in fourth and eighth grade math and reading proficiency in Minnesota despite a rise in per pupil spending. The NAEP reported that Minnesota students scored lower in both categories in 2022 compared to 2019, although other states have seen similar declines. The latest Minnesota math scores remain above the national average and reading scores are comparable to the average.

Wigfall argued administrative bloat and diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives are responsible for a decline in the quality of education in Minnesota.

Walsh also touched on the state of Minnesota’s economy. According to the Center, Minnesota’s GDP growth per capita has fallen behind the nationwide average, which he called “a very bad sign.”

“All of this stuff that we did last year in 2023, all of these programs, all of this government spending, if it worked then things in Minnesota should be better and our young people should be more positive and optimistic and want to stay here,” said Walsh.

Walsh predicted a “repeal agenda” would gain ground as legislators seek to undo key decisions from the 2023 legislative session. He stated that switching control of the legislature is not the Center’s job, but that they would be ready with policy suggestions for the repealers if that takes place.