Here's what a Trump-Harris matchup could mean for Minnesota's swing state status

Minnesota's 2024 race still looks competitive — even after President Biden dropped out and endorsed Vice President Harris — operatives on both sides of the aisle tell Axios.

The big picture : Growing concerns about Biden's age and popularity were central to the Trump campaign's case that they could flip Minnesota's presidential vote for the first time since 1972.

• Democrats' rapid consolidation behind Harris has neutralized the party's biggest vulnerability and revitalized the race, Axios' Zachary Basu writes.

Yes, but: National and swing state polls suggest a Trump-Harris matchup would still be close .

Catch up fast: Buoyed by polls and shifting election forecasts , the Trump campaign has recently signaled plans to try to win the DFL-controlled state the former president lost by just 45,000 votes in 2016.

• The team announced its first two Minnesota hires on the eve of the Republican National Convention, and Trump name-dropped the state when announcing his vice presidential pick .
• Throughout the convention, his advisers argued Minnesota deserves toss-up treatment.

What they're saying: Minnesota Republicans say the shake-up doesn't change the elements they need to win: a fired-up GOP electorate, a divided Democratic base, and strong third-party campaigns.

• "It's game on," Jennifer DeJournett, president of the Minnesota-based GOP firm Ballot Box Strategies, told Axios on Monday. "It's going to be a function of who has the best turnout operation on the ground."

Between the lines: Republicans say Harris still carries Biden's baggage on issues they think favor the GOP, such as the economy, immigration, and questions over Biden's fitness for office.

Reality check: Minnesota Democrats still have significant structural advantages, including control of state government, a statewide population heavily concentrated in the deep blue metro, and a large campaign cash edge .

• The Biden campaign — which Harris has assumed control of — announced Minnesota hires months ago and the state party already has 25 campaign offices and dozens of paid organizers doing voter outreach.

The other side: Democrats, too, say the fundamentals of the race remain the same. They still see it as a referendum on Trump and his record on issues like abortion and LGBTQ rights.

• DFL Party chair Ken Martin predicts that Minnesotans would again "show up in force … to reject [Trump's] extremism."

The intrigue: Democrats point to record-breaking fundraising — including in Minnesota — after the switch as a sign that a ticket led by Harris will motivate voters.

• "This isn't a candidate we're pulling off the bench who hasn't been campaigning," Martin said on Sunday.

What we're watching : Whether Trump follows through with the promised resources that strategists say is required to move the needle.

• His stated plan for eight field offices would be the biggest Minnesota investment by a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years, said Brian McClung, a veteran of former GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty's presidential campaign.
• Minnesota Republican Party chair David Hann told Axios that high enthusiasm among GOP voters and the party's recent climb out of debt puts it in a good position to capitalize on that help.

The bottom line: We're still not a swing state. If Minnesota flips, it probably means the blue wall has crumbled and Trump has achieved a "victory of historic proportions," McClung notes.

• But even if he doesn't succeed, Republican efforts could force Democrats to spend more time and energy here, diverting resources from even more competitive states.

The math and the path: Factors to watch in Minnesota

Here are five factors that will influence Trump's success, based on a dozen conversations with GOP and DFL strategists and officials:

1. Voter drop-off: Trump's math gets better if Democrats and independents disillusioned with Harris and the Biden administration stay home — including DFL primary voters who cast an "uncommitted" ballot to protest the Israel-Hamas War.

• The other side: Even before Harris stepped in, Democrats argued their track record of turning out voters in the vote-dense Twin Cities and the boost that often comes with having U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar on the ballot will boost their chances.

2. "Rural roar:" Increasing vote totals throughout GOP-leaning parts of Greater Minnesota — including in the "L" formed by the First and Seventh Congressional Districts — is key to closing the margin, DeJournett says.

• What to watch: She's working to persuade rural Republicans to vote early and by mail — a strategy Trump himself now embraces— to allow more resources to shift to swing voters later on.
• Plus: Republican energy following the attempt on Trump's life could also help motivate his base in those areas.

3. Suburban shift: Trump also needs to regain the suburban ground he lost to Biden in 2020, including in the south metro bellwether of Dakota County, operatives argue.

• Pawlenty, who ran for president in 2012, told Axios that Trump will "need to over-perform in first-ring suburbs while clawing back support" from others.

4. Issue shake-up: Abortion drove voters to the polls in 2022, benefitting Democrats. Harris could bring that issue back to the forefront.

• But Republicans believe they'll benefit this year from border security, inflation, and crime taking precedence, especially since Minnesota has codified abortion rights .

5. Third-party rise: In 2016 when Trump narrowly lost the state, third-party candidates pulled about 9% of the vote. In 2020, when Biden won by 7, third parties captured less than 3%.

• Results from a November ballot with Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West will look more like 2016, GOP communications consultant Preya Samsundar, an RNC alum, predicts.