NEW YORK — With Vice President Harris’s selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) as her running mate, the 2024 presidential field is set. And Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is confident about the GOP’s chances up and down the ballot.
Johnson — speaking to The Hill for a wide-ranging interview in New York City on Tuesday — predicted Republicans will secure a political trifecta this cycle, and said Walz on the ticket makes matters easier for the GOP in the lead-up to November.
The Speaker, similarly, was bullish about his chances of retaining the gavel in the next Congress. Johnson — who won the top job in an historic feat last year — said he believes the GOP conference will unite behind his bid to continue his Speakership, a quest that will be assisted by a strong performance in November.
Those sentiments, to be sure, are in line with the optimistic outlook Johnson has expressed in recent months. But the positive attitude Tuesday comes as the 2024 election cycle enters a new phase.
“I like the match-up now,” Johnson said when asked how the GOP conference will fare against the ticket, shortly after Harris chose Walz as her vice president. “I’m pleased, for our purposes, that she chose Walz, because they can’t hide from their record and I don’t think it’s going to resonate with the people.”
“We were on trajectory, prior to all of the developments of the last few weeks, to have a decisive victory in both the House and the Senate for the Republican Party,” Johnson continued. “I believe that we still are on that trajectory.”
“I’m very bullish about November,” he added.
‘I believe all of our incumbents will be reelected’
Johnson spoke to The Hill during a 20-state swing he is tackling in August, a blitz that is taking him everywhere from battleground districts to Democratic strongholds in his quest to expand the majority and keep the gavel.
The Speaker met Tuesday with a pair of New York Republicans who hail from districts President Biden won in 2020 — Reps. Mike Lawler and Anthony D’Esposito — in addition to Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.), who represents an area that former President Trump narrowly captured in the last election, a source familiar told The Hill.
The Speaker traveled to New York from the West Coast, will head to Maine’s 2nd Congressional District — which is represented by Democratic Rep. Jared Golden — on Wednesday to open a battle station for the National Republican Congressional Committee, then go down the coast to Virginia to campaign with Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.), another Biden-district Republican, later this week.
Johnson said he has done campaign events in 147 cities and 32 states thus far. Of the 20 states he will hit in August, eight will be first-time visits.
Speaking from the 79th floor of a Midtown Manhattan skyscraper overlooking New York City, the Speaker predicted that every Republican incumbent candidate will win reelection to the House in November, an ambitious forecast — especially in the Democratic bastion of New York, home to five of the 17 Biden-district Republicans.
“New York is critical to our majority, as is California and some of the other swing states. We have extraordinary incumbents in these districts, and they’re running fantastic reelection campaigns. That has been very rewarding to see,” Johnson said. “They’re outworking their opponents, and in many cases they’re raising more money. And this has been encouraging, because they have the right message and they have the right tone and they know their communities, they know their districts, they’re presenting a very compelling case for why they need to be reelected.”
Johnson was cautious not to forecast how many seats the conference will pick up in November — “I don’t want to handicap it” — but he predicted House Republicans “will have a dramatic improvement in our numbers” after the group grappled with a one-seat majority for part of this Congress.
“I think we’ll have a sizable majority,” the Speaker said. “I do not expect — nor does anyone, I don’t think, who’s paying attention — a 35- or 40-seat majority. It’s not possible anymore, because the number of swing districts has been reduced dramatically due to gerrymandering and redistricting. But I think we can have an exponential increase in our majority, and I think that’ll be very helpful.”
“I expect that we’ll have a Republican majority in the Senate, and I expect to have Donald Trump back in the White House,” he continued. “So if we have unified government, what we’re also planning in the midst of all this is a very aggressive first 100 days agenda for the Congress.”
Republicans had been projected by Decision Desk HQ as the favorites in the presidential, Senate and House races, but not as more likely than not to successfully win all three — but President Biden dropping out of the race threw the political environment into turmoil, and DDHQ, like other forecasters, have paused their models.
Asked for one piece of friendly advice he would offer Trump in the final stretch to Election Day, Johnson reiterated a message he has pushed since Biden stepped down and Harris assumed his spot on the ticket: focus on policy and not personalities.
“I’ve had conversations with him, even in recent days, about the campaign and our message, and I believe that he understands and agrees with my assessment that this is a contest between policies and not personalities,” Johnson said. “And the more that we highlight Kamala Harris’s actual record — not the rhetoric, but the record — I think that serves us well and will serve the country.”
That suggestion, however, contrasts with Trump’s performance during an interview at the National Association of Black Journalists convention last week, during which he said Harris “happened to turn Black” in recent years, comments that drew criticism from both sides of the aisle.
Asked about his remarks, Johnson took a short pause before telling The Hill he did not see the interview in full, and reiterating his message: focus on policy and not personalities.
“I didn’t see the whole interview. I saw some of the highlights. I think that all of us need to be very disciplined about keeping this to the record,” he said.
Johnson confident conference will rally around him as Speaker
Johnson has made clear in recent months that he wants to remain leader of House Republicans in the next Congress, and is hopeful — and confident — that it will be in the capacity of Speaker.
But he faces obstacles even if Republicans hold the House, including conservative detractors within the conference.
That list is likely to include Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), two hard-line Republicans who launched an unsuccessful effort to oust Johnson earlier this year.
The opposition could lead to a situation similar to January 2023, when then-Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) struggled to secure the gavel as the tiny House GOP majority gave a small group of opponents the power to hold up his Speakership bid. McCarthy ultimately won the top job on the 15th round of voting.
Asked Tuesday how much of a cushion he will need to win the gavel, Johnson declined to name a number but he contended the conference will ultimately unify behind him, an outcome that would be more likely if he helps expand GOP majority in November.
The Speaker pointed to the high stakes of the current election, arguing there will be little appetite for drama in January.
“I believe that continuity will be very important in terms of leadership because the playbook, having been designed, it now has to be executed,” he said. “I think everyone understands, all members of the conference understand, the stakes are so very high, and we have a huge responsibility on our hands, and I don’t think there’s going to be a big appetite for a lot of internal drama.”
Johnson continued, arguing that “all those factors weigh in favor of maintaining stability in the leadership.”
“And so I expect that’s what’s going to happen. I don’t know what that comes down to for vote tally,” he added. “I’m an optimist, and I think we’ll be able to pull everybody together and we’ll have great unity going forward.”
For now, however, Johnson is set to continue his campaign travel throughout the month of August in a blitz that will likely extend until Election Day — with a brief reprieve for House business in September.
Asked Tuesday what his hobbies are and how he unwinds, the Speaker — who was catapulted to the center of Washington after McCarthy’s ouster last year — said he enjoys spending any spare minute he has with his family, including two daughters who are in law school, a son at the Naval Academy and a 13-year-old still at home.
“And so, any available time that I have had in the last several years has been devoted to ball games and kids activities, and that’s where I find my great joy,” he added. “I haven’t had time for any of my own hobbies in several years.”
Asked if he is ever the vocal father in the stands yelling at the umpire about a bad call, the Speaker said he prefers to keep a low profile. He did, however, drive a veiled jab at Washington politicians who like to spend their off time at the golf course.
“I just enjoy my family, time with my family, and I don’t get enough of it these days,” Johnson said. “So, if I had a spare Saturday, I would never go to a golf course. So it would be with my kids. That’s my priority. That’s been what I’m about.”
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