The Minnesota Twins continue their pursuit of the Cleveland Guardians atop the American League Central Division. They are currently in position to make the postseason . If they are going to stay there, then starting pitching must continue to show up.
Minnesota Twins horses can’t run with MLB’s best
Since the offseason the Minnesota Twins have been seeking a starting pitcher to replace Sonny Gray in the starting rotation. Due to payroll limitations by ownership , they have yet to secure that sort of arm.
Pablo Lopez is the staff ace, and he must be at his best, with Joe Ryan done for the year . Bailey Ober has stepped up in a big way, which the Twins desperately needed. The Athletic’s Eno Sarris recently ranked every starting pitcher in Major League Baseball, entering September. The results were not pretty.
- 18. Pablo Lopez (Previous rank – 20th) – Lopez has been trending well for weeks. Dating back to his 14 strikeout performance on June 23 he owns a 2.65 ERA across 11 starts for the Twins.
- 53. Bailey Ober (Previous rank – 51st) – There’s probably too much recency bias here, in dropping Ober. He was shelled for nine runs by Atlanta his last time out, but owns a 3.48 ERA in his last 12 starts and it’s a 2.09 ERA if you remove the Braves blow up.
Sarris putting just one Twins pitcher in his top 50 , and dropping another further down, is a rough but accurate reality. Lopez has been trending well, but doesn’t look close to the ace he was a year ago. Ober is continuing to develop, but has been susceptible to difficult outings. Lopez into Ober, at the top of a playoff rotation is dicey proposition, at best.
Heightened expectations for Twins’ rookie starters
Rocco Baldelli has just two veteran arms in his rotation, if you consider Ober a veteran. Joe Ryan is done for the year and Chris Paddack is hoping to return for a bullpen role, by playoff time.
Related: Minnesota Twins Postseason Rotation Could Look MUCH Different Than Expected
Behind Lopez and Ober, the rotation is full of untested rookies. Simeon Woods Richardson has been a solidifying presence all year , but Sarris isn’t sold . The upside of both Zebby Matthews and David Festa brings greater intrigue.
- 60. David Festa (Previous rank – 155th) – He owns a 3.06 ERA across his last seven games and has allowed opposing hitters to bat just .193 off of him. There’s a few too many walks, but 43 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings works.
- 65. Zebby Matthews (Previous rank – UR) – In three big league turns Matthews has gone five innings each time. His last outing was the best as he allowed just a single run while striking out seven. Matthews has seen a meteoric rise this year, and could be an overlooked asset down the stretch.
- 125. Simeon Woods Richardson (Previous rank – 147th) – It’s odd that the most stable rookie for Minnesota is the lowest, but he has a 5.59 ERA in his last six turns . Woods Richardson has seemingly been flirting with disaster, and may be running out of steam.
The reality for Minnesota is that none of these three arms would traditionally help to make up a postseason rotation. The Twins should have better bets to perform in big moments , but they haven’t done anything to make that a reality.
Related: How Much Has Recent Losing Stretch Hurt the Minnesota Twins?
It’s possible that the three rookies buckle down and mature right in front of our eyes. There’s also the possibility that the moment causes them to wilt. It’s not at all surprising to think the Twins are still well-positioned for the postseason. It’s entirely fair to be skeptical regarding their ability once getting there.
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