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Minnesota Golden Gophers vs USC Trojans: 4 Stats to Know and Why They Matter
By Matt Johnson,
16 hours ago
The Minnesota Golden Gophers are in the midst of a challenging season. Fresh off a frustrating defeat on the road against the Michigan Wolverines, their third consecutive loss to a Power 5 opponent, the Gophers are now back home for a huge matchup against the No. 11 USC Trojans.
Unsurprisingly, Minnesota is nearly a double-digit underdog at home against the Trojans. It’s a reflection on a Golden Gophers offense, which ranks 78th in scoring (28.4 PPG), 73rd in passing (225.8 total ypg) and 114th in rushing (101.4). It’s why we’ll be keeping an eye on both defenses between USC vs Minnesota.
Let’s dive into the stats you need to know for Saturday night’s USC Trojans vs Minnesota Gophers matchup. As always, we include additional stats and data as part of our analysis.
18.5% – USC Trojans pressure rate against Power 5 opponents
Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images
This isn’t the same laughably bad USC Trojans defense we’ve seen in previous seasons. Lincoln Riley hired D’Anton Lynn as the Trojans defensive coordinator this offseason. That move is proving to be one of the best hires in college football.
Entering college football games today , USC ranks 32nd in yards per game allowed (304.8). They also rank 20th in scoring defense (17 PPG allowed). However, the Trojans’ pass rush often disappears for long stretches of games.
Entering Week 6, USC ranks 89th nationally in sack rate (4.63 percent), and they’ve been worse against Power 5 opponents. In three games against LSU, Michigan and Wisconsin, the Trojans managed just 15 pressures against 81 dropbacks. That’s well below the national average, at just 18 percent pressure rate, per Pro Football Focus .
On the other side of this Trojans’ pass rush, however, is a Gophers offensive line that has allowed the ninth-most pressures (44) and seventh-most sacks (eight) among Power 5 teams. In short, this is a matchup of a stoppable force vs movable object could have a major influence on this game which leads us to our next stat.
33.8% – Completion Rate Differential for Minnesota Golden Gophers QB Max Brosmer when pressured, vs clean pocket
Matt Krohn-Imagn Images
It’s been a rough 2024 season for starting quarterback Max Brosmer. The senior signal-caller has completed under 62 percent of his pass attempts in three games this season and he ranks 76th among quarterbacks in yards per attempt (7.1). One of the obvious difference-makers in his performance is facing pressure vs clean pockets and there’s a stark contrast between the two performances.
Max Brosmer stats vs pressure ( PFF ): 37.9% completion rate, 5.0 yards per attempt, 1-2 TD-INT, 37.3 NFL QB rating
Among qualified Power 5 quarterbacks, Brosmer ranks 55th in completion rate (37.9 percent) when he is pressured. He also ranks 51st in yards per attempt (5.0), 58th in PFF grade (40.1) and 61st in NFL QB rating (37.3). The issues are even more amplified by Minnesota’s issues upfront, but pressures and sacks are just as much on the quarterback as the offensive line.
Max Brosmer stats vs clean pocket (PFF): 71.7% completion rate,7.3 yards per attempt, 5-2 TD-INT, 81.9 PFF grade, 98.8 QB rating
When he does have time to throw, Brosmer is accurate and efficient. He boasts the eighth-highest Adjusted Completion rate (83.5 percent) from a clean pocket and his QB rating jumps by 61.5 points when the pocket is clean. That’s what makes this battle of the trenches the biggest X-factor on Saturday for the USC Trojans vs Minnesota Golden Gophers.
5 — TD passes by USC Trojans QB Miller Moss when blitzed.
Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Under first-year defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman, this Gophers defense knows how to get to the quarterback, sometimes in unconventional ways. Minnesota defensive back Jack Henderson is tied for the team lead in sacks (1.5). Seven Gophers defenders have been credited with at least one sack this year.
Henderson is also tied for the fourth-most pass rush snaps (11) among defensive backs. He’s been sent after the quarterback on 37.9 percent (second-most in FBS) of his snaps on passing downs.
Miller Moss stats vs blitz (PFF): 58.2% completion rate, 7.9 yards per attempt, 5-1 TD-INT, 83.3 PFF grade, 74.5% Adjusted Completion rate, 106.3 NFL QB rating
It makes for a fascinating chess match against this Trojans offense. Miller Moss isn’t being talked about as one of the best quarterbacks in college football, but he is playing well.
Moss ranks 17th among Power 5 quarterbacks in Adjusted Completion rate (74.5 percent) when blitzed. He’s also thrown 5 touchdowns on 55 pass attempts, against the blitz. Of note, Miller Moss boasts the third-highest completion rate (60.9) percent with a 3-1 TD-INT line when pressured this season.
21 – Yards Allowed this Season by Minnesota Golden Gophers CB Ethan Robinson
Matt Krohn-Imagn Images
USC vs Minnesota will play on the Big Ten Network. Thus, there won’t be a primetime audience for the Gophers defense to receive the national attention it deserves. However, one player absolutely worth highlighting before this matchup is Golden Gophers cornerback Ethan Robinson.
A transfer from Bucknell, the 6-foot defensive back has been outright phenomenal this season. Among starting cornerbacks across the FBS, Robinson has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards (21) across five games. He’s played 131 coverage snaps, allowing the second-lowest reception rate (20 percent), on 10 total targets.
Whether it’s in zone coverage (1 reception on 8 targets), which he plays 60.3 percent of the time, or man coverage (1 reception for 21 yards), Robinson has been a shutdown CB. If Minnesota is going to upset USC on Saturday night, Robinson needs to be elite, which would allow Hetherman to blitz more.
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