Modesto begins largest housing project in decade. Here’s possible starting price for homes

Construction has begun on a 527-home project in east Modesto, the city’s largest by far in the past decade-plus.

The developer had estimated prices starting “in the high $400,000 range” when the Modesto City Council approved the plans Jan. 30. That figure and the upper limit are still being refined, the company, D. R. Horton Inc ., said in an email Friday.

The project, called the Crossings, is on 84 acres just west of the Amtrak station . Most of the site had mature almond trees, which were toppled and chipped earlier this month.

The homes could be too pricey for most Modesto residents, but supporters said they would ease the housing shortage indirectly. Many will be purchased by people now living in apartments, which will free up rentals for others.

“This is a great project,” Councilman David Wright said just before the vote. “We just need more of them here in the city of Modesto.”

First homes could be ready in a year

Horton plans to have the first houses ready next summer, said Vince McCarrie, a regional vice president, in the email. The project will be done in phases over several years, but a detailed timeline was not available Friday.

The site is just north and east of Westurf Nursery and a Modesto Irrigation District substation. The main access on the west will be at Claus Road and Merle Avenue, including a roundabout. Another of the traffic circles will be on Briggsmore Avenue just west of the rail station. A 9-foot-tall sound wall will run along the tracks, which also carry freight trains.

Horton plans a park and about three miles of bicycle paths, including one along Claus fully protected from motor vehicles. It will connect with a similar route already running south to Dry Creek Regional Park and west to downtown.

Horton, based in Arlington, Texas, is the largest home-builder in the nation. It has planned the Modesto project from its San Ramon branch office.

“The Crossings is a master planned community featuring a grand central park, bike and walking paths with immediate connectivity to the regional Amtrak station,” McCarrie said.

Home-building all but vanished

A city staff report in January said only 64 housing units had been built in Modesto since 2020. The previous decade brought 1,738. The stretch from 1980 to 2010 had 28,642 homes. The boom petered out with the mortgage crisis of 2008, which left many families unable to make their monthly payments.

Population growth has slowed since the 1980s, but the area is still short of housing. The tight market raised the median sale price in Stanislaus County to $458,250 as of March, the California Association of Realtors reported. Only 28% of households could afford the median monthly payment of $2,930.

Many would-be homebuyers are instead living in apartments. Modesto’s average monthly cost was $1,652 as of March, according to rentcafe.com . A mere 1% of units were $1,000 or less.

One trend could work in favor of people hoping to buy homes. Loan rates have risen since 2021 to tame inflation, but some easing could be within sight. The 30-year rate could go from 6.8% now to 6.2% in a year, the Mortgage Bankers Association projected.

A word about old almond orchards

The loss of almond trees to the Horton project is minor considering that Stanislaus County has about 210,000 acres of this crop. And east Modesto does not have the especially productive soil that farmland advocates seek to preserve.

Central Valley almond trees long had been burned in the open after being removed for development or to plant another crop. That is being phased out due to concerns that the emissions could sicken residents and warm the global climate.

The mounds of wood chips are increasingly going to climate-friendly fuels or being tilled into farm soil elsewhere to sequester carbon. The Almond Board of California , based in Modesto, is researching and promoting the practices.

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