Robert Seitz: Even 10 billion dead crab is not evidence of human-caused global warming

There has been a lot of press on the decline of the crab fishery in the Bering Sea. Most of the articles and presentations about this blame human-caused climate change and marine heat waves.

As an engineer, I looked in to these claims to determine how much truth there is to the claims. As an Arctic engineer, I have studied sea ice. As an oceanographic instrument engineer, I have collected and processed data from the waters of Alaska. As a deckhand on a Kachemak Bay crab processing ship in 1957, I have an interest in crab. And as an Alaskan, I have an interest in making sure the news and stories of Alaska are reasonable true.

In an earlier column I stated: “It is not that we have hotter weather; we just have less cold in the winter” in response to the claim that Alaska is warming two to three times faster than the rest of the planet.

A review of air temperature and sea water temperature at St. Paul Island, and of the sea ice extent and area of the Bering Sea supports that statement: For the time during and preceding the lowest sea ice extent and the warmest temperatures in the Bering Sea at St Paul Island, there was a lack of air temperatures much below freezing for each of those years.

Beginning in 2022 the sea ice extent and area for the Bering Sea has approached values of the last century. In late 2021 more extreme low air temperatures were present at St Paul Island, which resulted in sea water temperatures falling below freezing, promoting the growth of sea ice. The extreme low air temperatures were also present in 2022, 2023, and at the beginning of 2024, which saw sea ice extent close to the historical value. We’ll see what the winter of 2024/2025 will bring.

With the sea ice extent getting back to normal with resultant lower ocean water temperatures, the recovery of the crab populations should continue. The point of this column is to voice my objection to reporters, op-ed authors, and bloggers who want to vent about the changing weather, and blame the changes on human-caused climate change and human-caused warming. Reporters should state the observable facts and not preface their presentation by stating that human-caused warming due to CO2 emission from fossil fuels is the cause.

My investigations show me that we don’t have a heating problem, but we do have a cooling problem.

Most of climate articles do not mention we have been recovering from the Little Ice Age. There are many historical accounts of extreme cold during recent past centuries during which the Hudson River, the Thames River, and canals in Holland froze each winter. During that same time the summers were warm in the interior of Alaska, even while glaciers advanced.

We should encourage our Alaska scientists to do some real science about our weather and our climate to determine what kind of response should be expected from a recovery from the Little Ice Age, instead of accepting the claim that changes in our weather is due to greenhouse gas, when scientific observations do not support that claim.

If we stop the doomsday approach to weather observations, and accept that we have some change in weather around the globe, we can then find ways to adapt to what we have. It looks to me like we are getting our cold back, as the waters around Alaska are gradually getting back to their historically normal temperatures.

We have had weather anomalies in the past which were extremely abnormal. In 1957 the Gulf of Alaska was 10 degrees above normal. The king crab in lower Cook Inlet moved out to deeper cooler water during that event. Crabbers were wondering where all the crab went that year. In 1958 it rained 96 inches in 90 days in Chinitna Bay on the western side of Lower Cook Inlet. In 1967 it rained in the Interior of Alaska hard enough for 8 days in August that the Yukon River, Tanana River, Chena River, and others were so full that the Tanana and Chena overflowed their banks and flooded the Fairbanks area. In 1948 there was a flood in Fairbanks, but it was not nearly as bad. It was a spring break up flood.

It is time to combat the myth of greenhouse gas warming, change the conversation to the change in weather as we finish our recovery from the Little Ice Age. Then we can change the priorities of our transitions with renewable and alternate energy resources.

I still advocate for communities to use whatever alternate energy is most appropriate for their community, where there is no natural gas pipeline to provide their energy. I advocate for the installation of micro-nuclear reactors for those communities for which there is not a reliable natural source their community can develop. I also continue to advocate for the increase production of Cook Inlet natural gas to keep that as the primary fuel for the Railbelt for the foreseeable future.

And while we are at it, let’s keep Eklutna Dam, as it has provided reliable electric power for a long time and now provides water for a large portion of Alaska’s population, and if expanded could provide storage for the renewable energy resource that will be developed to supplement the Cook Inlet gas supply.

We do have some warming as evidenced by our extended growing season for much of Alaska, but does not seem to be expanding rapidly at all. With evidence that extreme cold temperatures are returning each winter that should provide some comfort to those who are concerned. It is time to learn more about our weather and how the cold of winter makes it all work. We all need to apply critical thinking to the information we gather, so that we can respond most sensibly to the events with which we are faced. I’m looking forward to a fresh batch of Bering Sea crab in a few years.

Robert Seitz is a professional electrical engineer and lifelong Alaskan.