Forecast track shifts east: Hurricane landfall expected in Louisiana on Wednesday

NEW ORLEANS (WGNO) — Residents across Louisiana should review their hurricane preparedness plans now and keep a close eye on the developing tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Expected to Form Soon

As of late Sunday night, satellite imagery and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data show the disturbance still lacks a well-defined center of circulation, remaining elongated. Once the system develops a closed-off circulation, it will become a named tropical storm. The next name on the list is Francine.

The strongest winds, estimated at about 50 miles per hour (mph), are concentrated on the system’s west side, likely influenced by the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. Winds are currently strongest on the west side but are expected to shift east as the system nears the coast.

Hurricane Landfall in Louisiana Likely on Wednesday

The system is expected to move slowly northward or north-northwestward through Tuesday, remaining offshore of Mexico and southern Texas.

By late Tuesday, it is forecast to turn northeast and accelerate toward the Louisiana coast, potentially making landfall on Wednesday afternoon or evening.

Although little change in strength is expected in the next 24 hours, the system is expected to intensify once it consolidates over warm Gulf waters. Current sea surface temperatures in the western Gulf of Mexico range from 86 to 89 degrees.

Some models suggest the possibility of increased wind shear and drier air near the coast, which may limit the storm’s intensification. The National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast calls for a Category 1 hurricane at landfall, but some models point to the possibility of the storm strengthening into a Category 2.

The system is forecast to become a tropical storm by Monday near the western Gulf Coast. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for northeastern Mexico and southern Texas.

The risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds is increasing for parts of Louisiana and Upper Texas starting Tuesday night.

Residents in these areas should ensure hurricane preparedness plans are in place, as Hurricane Watches and Storm Surge Watches are likely to be issued on Monday.

Flooding Concerns Tuesday Through Thursday

Residents in New Orleans and surrounding areas should be prepared for potential heavy rainfall and flooding concerns. After several days of rain last week, many areas are still waterlogged.

With already saturated soils, locally heavy downpours of 2 to 3 inches per hour could quickly lead to flash flooding, particularly in areas along and south of the I-10 corridor.

Around 2 to 4 inches of rain can be expected north and west of Lake Pontchartrain over the next several days. For locations south of the lake, 4 to 6 inches are in the forecast with locally higher amounts possible.