Duchene's Double-OT Winner a Reminder of Predators' Dead Cap Woes

It’s been almost a year since general manager Barry Trotz and the Nashville Predators abruptly and unexpectedly bought out Matt Duchene's contract, and Predators fans received another painful reminder of it on May 17.

The veteran forward, who signed a one-year, $3 million contract with the Dallas Stars on July 1, scored the game-winning goal in double overtime against the Colorado Avalanche in Game 6 of the Second Round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

So, while the Predators got an early start to their offseason with a first-round playoff exit, Duchene went on to lift their Central Division rivals to an appearance in the Western Conference Final – and Nashville paid him $2.56 million to do it.

Unfortunately for the Predators, the ramifications of the buyout are going to get worse before they get better. Nashville bought out Duchene with three years remaining on his deal at an annual cap hit of $8 million, and the buyout itself will span six years. It cost the Predators $2.56 million in the 2023-24 season, but that number will jump to $5.56 million in 2024-25. The cost will peak at $6.56 million in 2025-26 before tapering off to $1.56 million in each of the last three seasons.

Duchene's contract is just one piece of the puzzle that is Nashville's salary-cap situation in 2024-25. According to CapFriendly , the Predators have the second-highest dead cap hit in the NHL next season at $11,805,556 in buyouts, retained salary, recapture penalty and overages.

In addition to Duchene, the Predators' 2020 buyout of Kyle Turris will also cost them $2 million in each of the next four seasons. Nashville also owes $4 million in retained salary to Ryan Johansen, which will come off the books after the 2024-25 season, and $250,000 to Mattias Ekholm in each of the next two seasons.

Even with more than $11.8 million of dead cap hit, the Predators still have $19.2 million in projected cap space next season with the NHL's salary cap projected to increase from $83.5 million to $87.7 million in 2024-25. How Trotz and his staff decide to use said cap space, which is currently the fifth-highest in the NHL, will make this a critical offseason for the franchise.

The Predators may have a finite amount of space next season, but they have infinite options for how to use it. How many funds will be dedicated to re-signing unrestricted free agents like Kiefer Sherwood, Jason Zucker, Alexandre Carrier and/or Kevin Lankinen? Will Nashville land any big trade targets or free-agent signings? What about a contract extension for goaltender Juuse Saros? No matter what happens, Trotz will have his work cut out for him this summer.