There’s no doubt that Chicago is a political city. Added to this is the fact that the DNC Convention will be held here in just a few short weeks. Because of this, the discussion about who will be the Democratic nominee for president and vice president is practically all anyone can talk about.
To help clarify who Chicago residents believe should win the bid for Presidential nominee and Vice President, a survey was conducted asking Chicagoan’s in Chicago’s three main neighborhoods about their opinions on the subject.
Data Collection
The only rule-out criteria were:
a) someone not from Chicago b) someone under the age of 18 c) Someone who didn’t identify as a democrat
Part 1
A pilot study was first conducted to establish a list of candidates for the second part of the study. Participants were asked who they believed should replace Biden on the Democratic ticket who would have the greatest chance of beating Donald Trump. Each participant was then asked who they believed would be the best Vice Presidential candidate that could help their president beat Donald Trump. These questions were open ended and respondents could provide any answer they chose.
These two data points were independent of each other as they weren’t asked specifically to pick a vice presidential candidate that would be the best option for the presidential candidate they chose.
Black 43% Caucasian 38% Hispanic 14% Asian 4% Other 1%
Results:
Presidential Choice
Michells Obama 40% JB Pritzker 20% Hillary Clinton 15% Kamala Harris 11% Pete Buttigieg 8% Gavin Newsom 4% Gretchen Whitmer 1% Joe Manchin 1%
Vice Presidential Choice
Michelle Obama 41% Gavin Newsom 30% Andy Bashar 13% Pete Buttiglieg 9% Josh Shapiro 5% Mark Kelly 1% Tim Walz 1%
Part II
For the forced choice part of the survey, it was decided to retain only those candidates who had received more than 1% of the vote. Each poll on a different Next Door site was randomly ordered to avoid ordering effects. Names on the data collection sheets for data collected in person were also randomly ordered.
Data collection was conducted in the following manner. A poll was placed on the Next Door site, which is a site for different neighborhoods in Chicago. Over 250 responses were received from the site until it was made clear that political oriented posts or projects are not allowed on the site so they were removed. The rest of the responses were collected at large events occurring around the city, at coffee shops, on Chicago beaches and on the subways.
Question 1: Out of the candidates listed here, which one do you think has the best chance of beating Trump/Vance and should be the Democratic nominee? Pick only one. (closed end)
Question 2: Out of the candidates listed here, which one do you think has the best chance of beating Trump/Vance and should be the Democratic Vice Presidential running mate? Pick only one.(closed end)
Number of participants: 1021
Geography
North Side 40% West Side 32% South Side 28%
Gender
Male 52% Female 47%Z Other 1%
Race
Black 44% Caucasian 37% Hispanic 15% Asian 3% Other 1%
Results
President
Michells Obama 37% JB Pritzker 18% Hillary Clinton 16% Kamala Harris 15% Pete Buttigieg 8% Gavin Newsom 6%
Vice President
Michelle Obama 37% Gavin Newsom 27% Andy Bashar 14% Pete Buttiglieg 12% Josh Shapiro 10%
Conclusions:
While this was nota scientific poll and only sampled a relatively small number of people in one democratic city, as the DNC approaches it’s possible that the accepted conclusion of who will be chosen to lead the democratic party against Trump/Vance may not be so foregone. Based on a sample size of 1021 democrats, Kamala Harris only received 15% of the votes in this poll for president. The clearest outcome was for former First Lady Michelle Obama, who received 37% of the votes for President and 37% of the votes for vice president. It appears, at least in this sample, that Chicago Democrats have a strong preference for her no matter what the role is. They simply want to see her in the White House.
When the delegates get together for the DNC in Chicago there are bound to be discussions both inside the meeting as well as throughout the country with many wondering if it’s possible based on the rules of the delegation that options other than Harris could be considered. However, as of now, Harris seems to have all the major endorsements of the Democratic party, and is being treated as the De Facto Democratic nominee. Whether this remains the case without any discussion, or whether there is some kind of new position of the party, will not be disclosed until the conclusion of the DNC.
It is also important to note that as opposed to the Republican Party, delegates in the Democratic Party are not "pledged" to a candidate. This means they can vote for whomever they choose. They are required to vote in a way that "in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them." However, as there were no primaries that established that Harris had the majority of the votes, the delegates have no instructions from the voters regarding who to vote for. It is stil expected, however, that Harris will become the nominee.
"UPDATE: It has been announced that there will be a virtual roll call before the start of the DNC on August 7th to make Kamala Harris the nominee and ensure her name showsup on ballots in all 50 states. She is the only candidate to qualify for the roll call so it promises to be uneventful.
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