TX Governor's Threat to Send More Migrants to Chicago Likely Hot Air; Not Enough Migrants at Border

Officials say significant decrease in number of migrants stopped at southern border so Chicago unlikely to see promised 25k migrants arriving during DNC

Photo byHarrison KugleronUnsplash

In recent months, Texas Governor Greg Abbott's vow to continue transporting migrants to sanctuary cities across the United States has gained significant attention. His announcement at the Republican National Convention in July, where he reaffirmed his commitment to continue this practice until the U.S. border is secured, was met with applause. However, the situation has evolved, and the anticipated surge in migrant arrivals in cities like Chicago, ahead of the Democratic National Convention (DNC), appears to be unfounded.

Chicago city officials have been warning for over a year of the potential for Governor Abbott to send large numbers of migrants to the city in the lead-up to the DNC, scheduled to begin in just a few days. This concern stemmed from fears that an influx of migrants would overwhelm the city’s resources, particularly in areas near the United Center, where the convention will take place. There were worries that the city would be unable to provide adequate housing for migrants, especially as encampments and shelters have been cleared from the vicinity.

Despite these concerns, the expected surge of migrants has not materialized. This is largely due to a significant decrease in the number of migrants being apprehended at the southern border. Official data reveals that in May, approximately 117,000 migrants were intercepted, a significant drop from the 300,000 reported in December of the previous year. This number continued to decline in June, reaching around 84,000, the lowest monthly total since President Joe Biden took office in 2021.

As a result of this trend, Chicago’s top officials are revising their earlier predictions. Beatriz Ponce de León, Deputy Mayor for Immigration under Mayor Brandon Johnson, has stated that the feared surge of migrants ahead of the DNC is unlikely. She noted that there is no credible intelligence to support the expectation of tens of thousands of migrants arriving in the city in the coming days.

Previously, in July, Ponce de León had informed reporters that the city was preparing for up to 25,000 migrant arrivals related to the DNC. This estimate was based on the number of migrants that had been arriving in Chicago during the height of the city’s migrant crisis over the winter months, when over 2,000 migrants were arriving weekly. However, recent developments, including a June executive order from President Biden that limits the number of asylum-seekers entering the U.S., have led the city to adjust its expectations.

No buses transporting migrants have arrived in Chicago since June 17, according to Brian Berg, spokesperson for the city’s Department of Family and Support Services. Ponce de León further emphasized that there is no reason to believe that the situation will change in the days leading up to the DNC, although she acknowledged that city officials have no control over the number of asylum-seekers that may arrive.

Yet migrants are continuing to arrive in Chicago althought they are now making their own arrangements to get to the city. From July 13th to Aug. 11th, on average number 157 migrants have arrived weekly according to city data. Migrants arriving now are generally making their own way to the city, Ponce de León said.

The speculation about a potential surge was rooted in Governor Abbott’s earlier promises to continue sending buses of migrants to cities like Chicago. Since August 2022, Chicago has received 46,418 migrants seeking asylum, many of whom arrived on nearly 1,000 buses sent by Abbott. In July, Abbott reiterated his commitment to this strategy at the Republican National Convention, prompting Chicago officials to present a contingency plan to the City Council in anticipation of a possible influx.

However, the number of migrants arriving in Chicago has been steadily declining. From July 13 to August 11, the average weekly number of new arrivals was 157, according to city data. The majority of these migrants are now making their way to Chicago independently, rather than being transported by buses from Texas.

In light of this, the population in Chicago’s migrant shelters has also decreased significantly. The city’s temporary housing shelters currently house 5,579 individuals, which is nearly a third of the population recorded in December. This marks the lowest shelter population since the city began publicly sharing such data almost a year ago. Additionally, Chicago has nearly half of its shelter capacity available, and officials have contingency plans in place to establish “just-in-time” shelters if more beds are needed in the event of a sudden surge.

During the peak of border crossings last fall and winter, Chicago was receiving multiple buses daily. To manage the arrivals, city officials passed an ordinance that penalized buses for dropping off migrants at unannounced hours. This led to a period during which migrants were dropped off in suburban areas and subsequently made their way into the city by train. Many of these migrants were from Venezuela, fleeing political turmoil that worsened following a disputed election in late July.

Several suburban municipalities, in response to Chicago’s ordinance, enacted similar measures to prevent buses from arriving, particularly in the middle of the night. Despite these restrictions, volunteers in Wilmette, one of the last suburbs to pass an ordinance, have continued to prepare for the possibility of receiving hundreds of migrants before the DNC. Volunteers have assembled 1,000 welcome bags for migrants, despite having no recent updates about potential arrivals.

White House officials and immigration advocates have pointed to the Biden administration’s actions and increased enforcement by Mexican authorities as factors contributing to the slowdown in migrant arrivals. In June, President Biden issued an executive order that restricted who could claim asylum at the U.S. southern border, a move that has been credited with reducing the number of crossings.

Abbott’s busing initiative, which began in 2022 as part of Operation Lone Star, an $11 billion program aimed at addressing the migrant surge in Texas, has seen a decline in recent months. Last year, large numbers of buses transported migrants out of border towns such as Del Rio and McAllen. However, it has been several months since a bus left either of these cities, according to local officials and migrant shelter operators. The last buses sponsored by Abbott to leave Laredo and Brownsville did so in January, and the number of buses departing from El Paso has sharply decreased in recent months.

Bill Irvin, a representative of the nonprofit Opportunity Center for the Homeless, which serves migrants in El Paso, noted that the need for buses has significantly diminished. He explained that while the opportunity to send buses exists every Wednesday, there has not been a need for such transport for several weeks, underscoring the decrease in the number of migrants requiring shelter in the area.

A spokesperson for the Texas Division of Emergency Management, which has previously managed the logistics of migrant busing, stated that the fluctuations in bus departures are due to the varying number of individuals processed and released by federal authorities in overwhelmed border communities. These numbers directly impact the number of passengers on the buses.

In Texas border towns, the reduction in migrant arrivals has led some shelters to downsize operations. Victor Trevino Jr., an attorney for the mayor of Laredo, mentioned that some non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have had to scale back their activities due to the decline in the number of migrants needing assistance.

So, for now at least, it seems that Chicago may not face the anticipated challenges related to migrant arrivals during the DNC. While city officials remain cautious, the decline in migrant numbers and the absence of buses from Texas suggest that the situation may be more manageable than initially feared.