Damaging Winds & Large Hail Possible; Across the Mid-Atlantic; Late Afternoon of August 3rd, 2024

Photo byNational Weather Force

Brief Outlook:

Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, particularly from the Carolinas to southeast New York, from the afternoon into the evening. The main risk with these storms will be damaging winds and large hail. Check below for further details.

Region Impacted: Mid-Atlantic

States and Cities Impacted: Pennsylvania (Philadelphia, Pittsburgh), New York (New York City, Albany), Maryland (Baltimore, Frederick), Virginia (Richmond, Roanoke), North Carolina (Raleigh, Charlotte).

Upper-Level Dynamics:

A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from Georgia and the Carolinas into New England. This setup will result in enhanced wind shear, with values around 30-40 knots in the 0-6 km layer, supporting organized storm structures, including supercells.

Surface Conditions:

At the surface, instability values are expected to reach 1500-2500 J/kg locally 3000 J/kg across the region. Low-level moisture with surface dewpoints near 70°F will contribute to a deep moisture with instability. Effective shear will support supercell development with decent low-level lapse rates promoting strong updrafts however being the main issue for rapid strength in storms. Storms are expected to be initially discrete before potentially forming clusters or lines, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.

Timing:

Storms are expected to initiate by mid to late afternoon in the Ohio Valley, moving into the Mid-Atlantic by early evening. Peak activity will likely occur from late afternoon through the evening, with the most severe storms expected during this period. The storms are expected to weaken by late evening/overnight hours as they move into less favorable conditions. Main Impact: Damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.

Main Impact: damaging winds, large hail and lightning.

Stay tuned for more updates.

Sina⚡⚡

Managing Partner and Lead Forecaster of NWF Innovations & NWF Networks

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