Tropical Storm Debby to Bring Tornado Risks Up for Most of Central to Northern half of Florida Today

Photo byNational Weather Force

National Weather Force has issued a Tornado Alert (watch) effective today, August 4, 2024 and goes until Monday morning, August 5, 2024.

Zones Affected: West, Central, East, Northeast, North, Northwest Florida.

Official Discussion: Tropical storm Debby is moving west of the alert zone as we speak and will continue to bring in that southeast flow in the low-levels. This southeast flow will no doubt bring low-level shear to develop along with higher instability rates. A number of tornadoes will be expected with the alert window.

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Master General Meteorologist – is the owner and CEO of National Weather Force. A consulting meteorologist with over 26 years' experience for over 50 companies, including energy, agriculture, aviation, marine, leisure, and many more areas. He has certs from Mississippi State for broadcast met and Penn State forecasting certs MET 101, 241, 341 and 361 as a meteorologist, but before then was completely self-taught, barely learning a thing from the schools that he did not already know.

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Non NWF Official:

Tropical Storm Debby continues to intensify in accordance with NHC
forecasts, and is expected to strengthen further to a hurricane near
the end of the period and just prior to landfall. [Refer to latest
NHC advisories for track and intensity forecasts for Debby, as well
as tropical-cyclone watches and warnings. See SPC mesoscale
discussion 1812 for coverage of marginal/near-term tornado potential
very near the west-central FL Coast.] As Debby strengthens today
into this evening:
1. Expansion of the peripheral wind fields will provide
supercell-favorable low-level shear and hodograph size, and
2. The diurnal-heating cycle should destabilize moisture-rich
inland areas of peninsular FL and remove MLCINH, while
3. Low-level convergence/lift will strengthen in step with system
intensification.

Those factors should enlarge the outer convective pattern eastward
over more of the landmass. Such development may backbuild into
parts of south FL, but the greater probability for mature supercells
will be in the "slight-risk (5% tornado) area over western/central
FL today, spreading north toward the area near the FL/GA line
overnight. Late in the period into early day 2, as the system
approaches landfall and precip increases across interior northern FL
and southern GA, an overland, low-level baroclinic zone should
develop and strengthen. This feature -- with relatively stable,
rain-cooled air to its poleward side -- should act as a fairly
sharp, buoyancy-limiting boundary for the northern edge of the
tornado threat. However, a looser tornado-probability gradient
remains for now in the outlook lines, since the boundary's specific
location will depend strongly on mesobeta-scale convective/precip
geometry and density yet to be determined, within and just off the
northern rim of Debby's circulation.