New ECU poll offers a glimpse at how independent voters are leaning in swing-state NC

Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (L) and Attorney General Josh Stein (R). (Robinson photo by Getty Images/Stein photo file image)

A newly released poll by East Carolina University’s Center for Survey Research finds former President Donald Trump with a one percentage point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in North Carolina, 48% to 47%. Only 3% of respondents in the late August poll say they remain undecided in the presidential race.

It’s a different story in North Carolina’s gubernatorial contest where 11% of those surveyed say they have yet to make up their minds between the two leading candidates. Still, with two months to go before Election Day, Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein holds a six-point lead (47% to 41%) over Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson among likely voters. Another two percent indicate they may opt for a write-in candidate or one of the minor parties.

The ECU Poll also shows independent voters leaning toward Harris and Stein at this point in the race. The poll found among unaffiliated voters questioned, Harris leads Trump by ten percent, 47% to 37%. In the governor’s race, Stein leads Robinson 50% to 32% when it comes to independents.

Among female voters, Harris has a slight lead over Trump 50% to 45%, while Stein enjoys a significant lead over Robinson, 50% to 36%.

Robinson has been trying to gain ground over the last two-weeks with a statewide tour in smaller venues . On Thursday, he plans appearances in Newton, Shelby, Denver, and Mooresville.

Controversial comments have caused Robinson’s favorability to falter, especially among women. The Stein campaign has highlighted one statement in particular in which Robinson says that abortion in this country is not about protecting the lives of mothers.

“It’s about killing the child because you weren’t responsible enough to keep your skirt down,” Robinson said in his Facebook post .

Robinson has tried to redefine his position on abortion in recent weeks.

Abortion was among the top issues for those questioned in the ECU poll.

The poll found the chief concern among voters this fall is inflation. While 30% said cost of living factors were key in deciding how they would vote in November, that number was down markedly from the previous ECU poll in early June, when it was 42%, a sign perhaps that voters are seeing that inflation is easing .

The ECU Poll was conducted August 26-August 28, 2024 and is based on 920 completed responses to the poll’s questionnaire from a random sample of North Carolina registered voters.