Despite post-COVID spike, New Hampshire still faces population challenges

New Hampshire's population rose quickly in the years after COVID-19, but has recently begun slowing. (Courtesy: New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute)

New Hampshire’s population has grown since the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic — but not from people being born here. In-migration accounted for all of the state’s population growth, according to an analysis by the New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute.

Now, data indicates that the surge of people moving in is slowing down. A report this month from the NHFPI, a state think tank, pointed to U.S. Census data and state projections showing that the number of working-age people is expected to drop in the coming decades.

The trend is important: New Hampshire is an aging state, and some analyses suggest that the state’s population may cease to grow and instead start declining by 2040.

About 20 percent of Granite Staters are 65 and older and an additional 15 percent are between 55 and 65. Meanwhile, the proportion of children under 18 has declined.

There are not enough younger people in the state to change that long-term trajectory through births alone, analysts say.

“Because the state’s population growth comes primarily from in-migration, I think attracting young workers is key to helping ensure that the workforce is keeping up with the aging population,” said Jessica Williams , a policy analyst for NHFPI, speaking to reporters about the report.

Growth by moving truck

New Hampshire has grown since 2010 by about 6 percent; currently, the state has about 1.4 million people. Between 2020 and 2023, a net amount of about 30,000 people moved to the state, said Williams, citing Census data.

Carroll County, the home of Jackson, Conway, Wolfeboro and other lake and mountain towns, saw the largest growth in population between 2020 and 2023. Coos County saw the smallest rise.

Much of that migration was from other parts of the U.S. — most prominently Massachusetts — but in Hillsborough County, the majority of growth came from international arrivals.

New Hampshire also lost residents who moved to other states, most significantly Maine, where 6,488 people moved from New Hampshire in 2021 and 2022 combined.

The Granite State has gained some population from California, New York, and New Jersey, but has also lost some to Florida, Georgia, and North and South Carolina.

Internationally, New Hampshire has seen most of its population growth from India, which made up 23.8 percent of non-domestic immigration. The next three highest countries of origin are the Dominican Republic, comprising 9.1 percent, the United Kingdom, making up 6.1 percent, and Honduras, at 5.3 percent.

A brief surge in young people

Most of the people coming into the state are younger than the state’s median population. Out of all new residents from 2018 to 2022, 76.8 percent were under the age of 44, a potential boost to the state’s economy and workforce.

And the newcomers are more diverse, helping bring the population of non-white residents up to 12 percent overall.

Some of the recent growth is likely COVID-related, especially as the majority of new residents were from Massachusetts, a likely result of people moving north out of more populated areas and working remotely, Williams said. The same phenomenon likely explains the migration from New Hampshire to Maine, the NHPFI said.

But the growth seen in 2020 and 2021 has appeared to slow in the subsequent years. In 2023, the state’s total population increased by just 0.23 percent, after a 0.64 percent rise in 2021 and a 0.83 percent jump in 2022.

One of the reasons, posits Phil Sletten, the NHFPI research director who also briefed reporters: “As the state’s housing constraint becomes more severe, it may become more difficult for people to move here.”

And even if young families have moved recently, New Hampshire’s population of children under 18 has been steadily declining; an analysis by the NHFPI in 2022 found that the Granite State had the largest reduction in children of all 50 states from 2010 to 2020, according to Census data.

Overcoming that requires higher and more consistent numbers of people moving in.

Decades-long impact

Even with some in-migration, New Hampshire’s broader demographic direction is tilted to the reality that many residents are aging and workforce shortages persist.

One effect: Higher percentages of residents 65 to 74 are participating in the workforce now than were 20 years ago, according to New Hampshire Department of Employment Security data — although those percentages dipped somewhat from 2022 to 2023.

“Older workers are going to be a really important part of our economy going forward, and already are a really important part of the economy and workforce,” Sletten said.

Older residents are expected to make up an increasingly larger proportion of the state’s workforce until about 2035, when the trend will reverse, according to projections from the New Hampshire Department of Business and Economic Affairs.

After 2035, younger residents will increase their percentage share of the workforce.

But by 2040 the state is projected to reach a ceiling in its population: It will hover just over 1.5 million people and then drop slightly through the 2040s, an analysis by an outside contractor for the department found.

That is likely an effect of the current older generation of Granite Staters dying.

According to NHFPI, the effects could be widespread. More young residents may be taking care of older family members in the next few decades, taking themselves out of the workforce. The state already faces shortages of health care workers, and will need to build nearly 90,000 housing units by 2040 in order to meet population demands, according to New Hampshire Housing, a state agency.  Those problems will only increase over time as the existing population ages.

And New Hampshire schools — already the subject of more than 20 years of steady enrollment declines — will continue to consolidate or close, particularly in lower-population areas, analysts say.

The conclusion is clear, Williams said: More young people need to move here to slow down the underlying trends.

“A greater number of working-age adults, predominantly younger people, are moving into the state,” she said. “So while a strong and vibrant economy and workforce may be enough to bring people into the state, we also have to consider other structural components, such as childcare, care for relatives who are aging, and housing.”

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