Primaries are ‘so weird’: Checking in with UNH’s Dante Scala ahead of Tuesday’s voting

“I think whatever the outcome is tomorrow, Democrats have a very strong chance of retaining both seats," said UNH political science professor Dante Scala, referring to the state's two congressional districts. (Getty Images)

On Tuesday, voters will choose which candidates from each party face off in key races in November, including the first open race for governor in eight years after Chris Sununu decided not to seek reelection.

On the Democratic side, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig, Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington, and restaurant owner Jon Kiper are vying for the chance to turn the corner office blue. Competing for the Republican slot are former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte and former state Senate President Chuck Morse.

The 2nd Congressional District is also open after incumbent Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster chose to not run again. Democrats Maggie Goodlander, a former Biden administration official, and Colin Van Ostern, a former executive councilor, are fighting to replace her. Republicans have a crowded field, with Vikram Mansharamani and Lily Tang Williams leading the polls.

Several Republicans are also vying for the chance to take on incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep Chris Pappas in the 1st Congressional District, led by Russell Prescott, a former executive councilor, and Manchester Alderman Joe Kelly Levasseur .

As voters prepare to hit the polls to weigh in on those and other races, the Bulletin checked in Monday with Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire.

The Trump question

Ayotte and Morse have both said they support former President Donald Trump in his third run for president, but Morse has sought to make his embrace of Trump – and his attacks that Ayotte has not sufficiently supported him – an issue in the race.

But on what role Trump plays in this race, Scala said: “I think, ultimately, not a decisive one. And he chose not to.”

“Plausibly, if Trump had made an endorsement – and, I mean, assuming that’s not going to happen in the next, what 12 hours? – if Trump had made an endorsement, obviously, that would have sealed the deal for Ayotte in the primary,” he said. “… It could have made it interesting if … he had, in fact, endorsed Morse, but the fact that he didn’t, the fact that he stayed out of it, I think … lessens his influence.

“That, plus the fact that, you know, Ayotte’s done barely just enough to stay on Trump’s right side and to be able to say that … she was supporting him in the most minimal way possible. … It’s also true that, you know, Chuck Morse isn’t – I don’t know that he impresses a lot of people as having that Trump vibe as a candidate. … I think at best, it might help Morse make the race tomorrow marginally closer than it otherwise is going to be, but I would stress the point marginally.”

Warmington, Craig clash

In their final pitch to voters, Craig and Warmington have argued not just why voters should choose them, but why they shouldn’t choose their opponent. Craig has attacked Warmington over her lobbying work in 2002 for Purdue Pharma; Warmington has gone after Craig on her record in Manchester on homelessness and opioids.

“The concern for both Craig and Warmington has to be that what’s top of mind for voters is something negative,” Scala said, whether that’s Warmington’s past legal work or the negative picture of Craig’s tenure as Manchester mayor on the airwaves from both Warmington and Ayotte.

“When party leaders go after other party leaders, as these two are doing … it leaves a bad taste in voters’ mouths, no matter which party it’s happening in,” Scala said. “If Kiper … had more of a campaign going than he has, he could stand to benefit, right? Someone who’s above the fray, outside the fray, stays positive, etc. I just don’t know that enough people, enough Democrats, know who he is for him to get that big of a bounce out of what’s been happening.”

It will be key how well Warmington and Craig can play up their geographical advantages among “the people who know them best,” Scala said, pointing to Manchester for Craig and Warmington’s Executive Council district.

For Craig, that connection also poses difficulties, though. Scala wonders how small-town voters will react to the attacks on her tenure in Manchester.

2nd Congressional District

Democrats vying for the 2nd Congressional District seat have also run a tense race.

Van Ostern has the endorsement of Kuster, the incumbent Democrat, and has emphasized his work within the state. Meanwhile, Goodlander, a Nashua native, has spent years working in D.C., flexing national party establishment support, including an endorsement from Hillary Clinton, and the fundraising advantage to match.

In discussing the race, Scala pointed to the expression, “All politics is identity politics.”

“This is one thing that makes primaries so weird compared to general elections and so unpredictable, is that … in a general election, voters have very strong cues or hints to draw on,” Scala said. “For instance, whoever the Democratic nominee is from New Hampshire’s 2nd District, I would bet the house that the overwhelming number of Democrats will vote for that nominee no matter how nasty that race has gotten, because partisanship matters so much in a general election.

“But obviously in a primary … partisanship isn’t that cue to voters, so then you’re getting to kind of less tangible things, and this gets back to kind of identity politics. If Goodlander wins, I think it will show how she and her campaign made a bet that … ultimately gender identity is a much more powerful card in a New Hampshire Democratic primary than carpetbagging, or how long you’ve lived in the district, that sort of thing.

“… There are other factors, right? I mean, she’s had a lot more resources than Van Ostern, but it’s not like Van Ostern’s had nothing. … I think they (Goodlander’s campaign) made a bet that New Hampshire Democrats have a long tradition of selecting strong female contenders, including the present occupant of the 2nd Congressional District, and I think they made a bet that when push came to shove, they would do that again.”

Flipping the House seats?

“I think whatever the outcome is tomorrow, Democrats have a very strong chance of retaining both seats,” Scala said of the state’s two congressional districts. “The districts haven’t changed enough (with redistricting), and with (Kamala) Harris as the nominee, not Biden, I think that has bolstered Democrats here in terms of their enthusiasm among their base.”

In the 1st District, Scala said, “Pappas is a strong incumbent, as he proved two years ago.” The Republican nominee will enter the race with low name ID, few resources, and likely without support from the national party, he said. He thinks the same will be true in the 2nd District, and that the national Democratic Party will find either Van Ostern or Goodlander “perfectly fine as the nominee.”

The 2nd District, “before and after redistricting, leans Democratic,” he said. “And the quality of the candidates in the Democratic field, both of them are kind of better candidates than whoever the Republican Party is going to nominate in the 2nd (District). I think Democrats won’t have to worry too much.”

Ayotte in the general

“If it’s Kelly Ayotte, I do wonder about two things the day after the primary,” Scala said.

“One is, you know, obviously she’s going to have a ton of name ID – probably, most likely, more than the Democratic nominee does – but I wonder about what her favorability looks like in the polls among the general electorate. There have been an awful lot of ads run about Kelly Ayotte and abortion this past summer, so much so that she’s, you know, felt the need to respond for weeks now, because she’s so concerned about how that issue could affect her general election prospects.”

How Ayotte fairs among all voters, not just likely Republican primary voters, could give hints into whether she can replicate Sununu’s appeal.

“Let’s assume Trump doesn’t do better in New Hampshire than he did in 2016 or 2020,” Scala said. “Can Kelly Ayotte do what Sununu always was good at doing, which was setting himself far enough apart from Donald Trump that … he could get crossover voters,” those who voted for Democrats for president but supported him for governor?

“Does Ayotte have that kind of crossover potential?” Scala wonders. “… Ayotte’s success, or lack thereof, could have real kind of down ballot implications.”