Democrats could narrowly retake the state House by winning back a handful of seats, but Republicans hope that dissatisfaction with the economy could help them expand their majority. (Annmarie Timmins | New Hampshire Bulletin)
Denis Murphy Jr. styles himself as a down-the-middle kind of guy. As Winchester’s town moderator, he’s had to be, he says.
“I try to remain neutral, and I try to hear all sides and make sure that everybody has a voice,” Murphy said in an interview.
As the Republican candidate for Winchester’s House seat, Murphy is betting that a similar moderate political approach will translate to a win in November. His opponent, Democrat Natalie Quevedo, who was not available for an interview Monday, is hoping to claw the district back into Democratic hands. But Quevedo is also cognizant that in her town, running too far to one extreme is not the best strategy.
“Winchester has always been a purple town, through and through,” she said in an interview. “It could swing either way. … I am truly relying on the residents to vote for me based on my community service and what I’ve already done for the town.”
Winchester is closely divided between Democrats and Republicans. Its now open House seat narrowly went to a Republican last cycle. And with a nearly evenly divided state House, both parties are looking for any gains they can get — Democrats to flip the chamber, Republicans to expand their current thin majority.
By some calculations, that path includes Winchester. But everyone has a different map.
The battle for the 400-member New Hampshire House is not confined to one region of the state, but rather to a series of towns like Winchester where voters teeter. Democrats could narrowly retake the chamber by winning back a handful of seats. But strategists are looking at dozens of seats, hoping for a more decisive swing to one party.
The stakes
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, a national organization that focuses on statehouses, has invested $1 million this year into flipping the New Hampshire House. The organization also laid out a slate of House and Senate districts that it is aiming to help Democrats either flip or hold.
Of course, there’s four and a half weeks to go and that is a lifetime in politics.
– Democratic strategist Steve Marchand
Another Democratic strategist and former gubernatorial candidate, Steve Marchand, has his own list of House seats that he considers winnable. And he’s giving it to anyone who wants to listen.
At an hour-and-a-half seminar packed with House Democratic representatives and candidates earlier this month, Marchand argued that polling showed conditions becoming more favorable for Democrats.
The current 7 percentage point polling advantage held by Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump in New Hampshire, coupled with a tightening race for governor, could help boost Democrats chances of ousting enough Republicans to retake the speaker’s gavel, Marchand contended.
“If this sticks it would be the best Democratic political environment in New Hampshire for down-ballot candidates since 2014,” he said in a follow-up video message Oct. 4. “Of course, there’s four and a half weeks to go and that is a lifetime in politics.”
But Republicans are hoping that dissatisfaction with the economy and the Biden administration and a new series of attack ads warning of higher, Massachusetts-style state taxes could trickle down to House races and allow them to expand their House majority.
“This election is all going to come down to turnout and who has a better vision for our state – both of which will benefit our side, and we’re working every day to make sure our people are coming out to vote to make sure we don’t Mass Up New Hampshire,” said Chris Ager, chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party, in a statement.
Some analysts have noted the strategy.
“This year, I think that Republicans wanted to kind of make (the election about) parental rights maybe, immigration maybe, but now they’re back on, ‘We don’t want to have become Taxachusetts.’ And that does resonate with voters,” said Anna Brown, executive director of Citizens Count, a nonpartisan political research organization.
Control of the House will have major consequences no matter who wins the governor’s office. With a historically slim Republican majority the past two years, the chamber has narrowly defeated a parental bill of rights, “right to work,” and education freedom account expansion bills favored by Republicans. And whoever occupies the speaker’s office also controls the makeup of committees, the chairmanship of those committees, and use of special exemptions for bills.
Looking to 2022 for clues
As both parties look to improve their 2024 House election performance, the 2022 results are instructive.
That year, as Democrats in Congressional races outperformed expectations of a “red wave” two years into Joe Biden’s presidency, Democrats in New Hampshire also made gains in the state House, even as Republican Gov. Chris Sununu handily won his third re-election. The question now for observers in both parties is whether that result was an anomaly — driven by a wave of political momentum toward Democrats after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade — or a new baseline for the New Hampshire House.
Observers note a major difference this year: The presidential race. That will bring in more casual voters who might not be as invested in the statehouse but might vote down ballot as well. And it will inevitably bring ticket splitters — people who vote differently for president than for other candidates. That phenomenon has tended to work against Democrats in the past; the state has voted for a Democrat for president in every election since 2000, but Democrats have controlled the state House chamber only 8 out of the last 20 bienniums.
Voters are more likely to separate their presidential choices from their choices for governor, Executive Council, state House and Senate, Brown said. They’re much more likely to lump the latter offices together by party.
“I think that voters just kind of associate all of Concord together,” Brown said. “I don’t think they really think about: the legislature can do this and the governor can do this.”
Brown and analysts say the state will likely vote for Harris, but the scope of her win will matter. She will likely need to outperform Biden’s results in 2020 — he won by 7 percentage points — in order to begin to have any meaningful impact on the legislature.
On the other hand, Democrats have more to gain from a strong performance from former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig, the Democratic nominee for governor, some strategists say.
An Oct. 3 poll from St. Anselm College showed Kelly Ayotte winning 47 percent of respondents, to Craig’s 44 percent, just ahead of the margin of error. And Marchand’s prediction model suggests that by merely tying Ayotte — or nearly doing so — Craig could boost House Democrats enough to flip the House chamber even if she loses the governorship.
Either way, he said in an interview, “The gubernatorial race will almost certainly have a more direct causal impact on ballot results than the presidential.”
Ager and Republicans say they have their own strategy for gaining ground.
“Rural areas are trending Republican and we have great candidates running for all of those seats where we can make gains,” Ager said in a statement.
To Brown, New Hampshire Democrats have made broad national issues, like abortion, a centerpiece of down-ballot races while Republicans are focusing on local economic issues such as keeping low state taxes. That could provide a breakpoint along which voters might choose Kamala Harris for president but Kelly Ayotte for governor.
But for some House candidates, Marchand argues, their stated policies may matter less than the top-of-the ballot polls as election day nears. “Some of these really tight races, even a change of a half a point on the baseline will have real impacts on who wins and loses in these purple districts,” he said.
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