Most Americans believe former President Donald Trump will defeat Vice President Kamala Harris in the November election, according to a new poll.
In the latest AP-NORC poll , 56% of respondents said they believed Trump would likely prevail over Harris.
Harris, who launched her presidential campaign after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race in July, became the de facto Democratic nominee after Biden endorsed her and the party leadership rallied around her. Trump officially became the Republican nominee during the party’s convention in July.
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In the poll, the vast majority of Republican respondents, 88%, said they believed the odds are that Trump would win, while just 10% said they thought Harris would be triumphant.
Democrats, on the other hand, expressed slightly less confidence in Harris, with 71% saying they believed she would likely win and more than one-quarter, 28%, saying they believed Trump would come out on top.
Independents were more split. Fifty-six percent said they thought the former president would win, while 39% said the same for Harris.
The poll, conducted between July 25 and 29, sampled 1,143 U.S. adults, and has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.
Who would be a good president?
The poll also asked respondents whether they thought Harris and Trump would be good presidents, with the results heavily tied to partisan affiliation.
Forty-two percent of respondents said they believed Harris would make a good president, while the same share said they thought she would not. Fifteen percent said they didn’t know enough to decide.
The overwhelming majority of Democrats, 78%, said they thought Harris would be good, while a similar share of Republicans, 82%, said they believed she would not.
A plurality of independents, 40%, said they were of the opinion that Harris would not be a good president, while 28% said they believed she would.
When asked whether Trump would make a good president, a majority of respondents, 56%, said he wouldn’t. Thirty-eight percent said he would, and 5% said they didn’t know.
About three-quarters of Republicans, 74%, said they believed he would make a good president, while 86% of Democrats said he would not. A majority of independents, 57%, also said he would not.
Does electing a woman or person of color matter?
Additionally, the poll asked respondents whether they thought it would be a good or bad thing for the country to elect a woman to the presidency or if they believed it wouldn’t matter. The United States has never elected a female president, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was the first female major party nominee to run for the presidency in 2016.
Nearly half of respondents, 48%, said it wouldn’t matter, while 43% said it would be a good thing and 7% said it would be a bad thing.
A majority of Democrats, 70%, said it would be a good thing, while 28% said it would not matter and 1% said it would be a bad thing.
Far fewer Republicans were of the mind that a woman in the Oval Office would be significant. Sixty-eight percent said it wouldn’t matter, while 17% said it would be a good thing and 15% said it would be a bad thing.
Meanwhile, 56% of independents said it wouldn’t matter; 35% said it would be good, and 4% said it would be bad.
The poll also asked respondents their opinions on electing a person of color to the White House. Former President Barack Obama became the first person of color elected to the nation’s highest office in 2008.
Overall, 58% said it would not matter for the country, while 38% said it would be good and 2% said it would be bad.
When broken down by partisan affiliation, a large divide emerged.
A majority of Democrats, 61%, said it would be good to elect a person of color, while 38% said it wouldn’t matter. But among Republicans, 16% said it would be a good thing, 78% said it wouldn’t matter, and 6% said it would be a bad thing.
Independents were somewhere in the middle, with 32% saying it would be good, 64% saying it would not matter and 1% saying it would be bad.
Biden’s withdrawal and other decisions
Further, the poll sampled respondents on their opinions on Biden’s decision to step down as the nominee, to endorse Harris, and to stay in office for the remainder of his term.
It found there was strong bipartisan support for Biden withdrawing from the race, which he announced in a statement on July 21. Eighty-three percent of Democrats, 72% of Republicans and 69% of independents were in favor.
However, there was less support for Biden’s decision to stay in office until his term ends on Jan. 20. While 78% of Democrats approved of his decision, just 25% of Republicans and 45% of independents approved.
Biden’s choice to endorse Harris — which he announced moments after saying he would step down — was met with the lowest amount of overall approval. Eighty percent of Democrats supported it, while 15% of Republicans and 37% of independents were in favor.
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