Best Bets for Saints: Breaking down over/unders & longshot lines for 2024 | inside Black & Gold

There are a lot of interesting betting lines for the New Orleans Saints in 2024, but which key players should you expect to hit big?

On the latest episode of the Audacy original podcast Inside Black & Gold, Saints sideline reporter Jeff Nowak and WWL Sports Director Steve Geller dive in on over/under projections for 2024 with insight from the Reception Perception podcast, then we lay out some of the longshot lines with big odds. Derek Carr for MVP? Dennis Allen for Coach of the Year? Saints to win the Super Bowl? We’ve got it all.

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Segment 1 : Chris Olave Can (and should) Make Superstar Leap for Saints in 2024 ( click here to listen )

There will be high expectations for New Orleans Saints WR Chris Olave heading into Year 3, but exactly what is reasonable? Jeff Nowak and Steve Geller kick off this betting-themed edition of IB&G by breaking down some key numbers, and why No. 12 should blow them away in 2024, with insight from the guys over at Reception Perception (Matt Harmon & James Koh)

Bets discussed:
- Chris Olave receiving yards : over/under 1,099
- Chris Olave receiving TDs : over/under 5.5

Best bet?

We kept it simple here and only talked Chris Olave ... so that leaves us with two options. For our money both overs feel safe, but the yardage should be the easy money. Olave has surpassed 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons and that's with hardly any yards after catch to speak of. That should change this year in Klint Kubiak's scheme and we're pegging him closer to 1,300 yards. Hammer that over. Touchdowns are tougher to project because there's a huge variance in terms of getting tackled short of the goal line, which seems to happen to Chris a good bit.

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Segment 2 : Saints Over/Unders: Here’s Where We Land on Kamara, Others ( click here to listen )

Where will key Saints players land on their over/under projections? Jeff and Steve break down the numbers for Derek Carr, Juwan Johnson, Rashid Shaheed and others. A few are tough to project, but one player is a clear candidate for some regression in 2024.

Bets discussed :
- Derek Carr passing yards & TDs : over/under 3,449, 21.5
- Derek Carr passing TDs : over/under 21.5
- Rashid Shaheed receiving yards : over/under 675
- Alvin Kamara rushing yards and rushing TDs : 645; 4.5
- Juwan Johnson receiving yards/TDs: over under 425/4.5
- Kool-Aid McKinstry interceptions : over/under 1.5
- Tyrann Mathieu 5-plus INTs : +600
- Chris Olave 10-plus receiving TDs : +340
- Alvin Kamara 5 rushing TDs & 5 receiving TDs : +650
- Alvin Kamara 10-plus rushing TDs : +750

Best bet?

I know Derek Carr isn't exactly a fan or bettor favorite, but I think that might be working to your benefit right now. Say what you want about his Year 1 performance, but he still put up 3,878 passing yards despite missing the second half of two games with injuries, meaning that his 17 starts really equated to 16 games. In fact, he's surpassed the 3,499 mark in each of the past nine seasons, only falling short in his rookie season of 2014.

Over bets are always going to be contingent on health, but other than question marks on the OL there's no reason to bet with that in mind. The Kubiak scheme will emphasize the run, but also play action and quick game with crossing routes. That'll benefit Olave above, but it should also mean some easy yards for the QB. I expect both these overs to clear without much of a struggle.

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Segment 3 : Saints Bets You Definitely Won’t Win: Dennis Allen for Coach of the Year? ( click here to listen )

There are some New Orleans Saints bets you should feel pretty confident about. This segment is not about those. We’re talking about things like Derek Carr for MVP, Dennis Allen for Coach of the Year, Saints to win the Super Bowl and what type of odds you could get on those heavy predictions. You might be surprised to hear what we think is the most likely to actually hit big.

Bets discussed:
- Saints to win Super Bowl : +8000
- Saints to win NFC South : +340 (third)
- Offensive rookie of the year : Spencer Rattler +10000; Dallin Holker +25000; Taliese Fuaga +30000
- Defensive rookie of the year : Kool-Aid McKinstry +3500 (13th)
- MVP : Derek Carr +15000; Alvin Kamara +40000; Chris Olave +40000
- Offensive player of the year : Chris Olave +7500; Alvin Kamara +8000; Taysom Hill +20000; Derek Carr +2000; Rashid Shaheed +25000
- Defensive player of the year : Chase Young +10000; Marshon Lattimore +12000; Demario Davis +15000; Tyrann Mathieu +15000
- Coach of the year : Dennis Allen +6000 (31st)
- Saints sweep Falcons : +430
- Saints score TD in all 17 games : +200
- Saints kick FG in all 17 games : +2200
- Saints go undefeated : +100000
- Saints go winless : +42000
- Saints are last unbeaten team : +7500 (24th)
- Saints are last winless team : +2200 (10th)

Best bets?

From an odds perspective, the safest money would be betting the Saints to win the NFC South, but that's pretty boring. I see the Falcons as being massively overrated right now, and realistically the odds should be a lot flatter between Atlanta, New Orleans and Tampa. I see it as more of a pickem. As a matter of principle I'd also endorse the +430 line on the Saints sweeping the Falcons, because it's just something you should always be rooting for anyway ... why not have some skin in the game?

The TD in all 17 games could also be a fun trigger to pull at +200. The big upside isn't necessarily there, but it's a reasonable expectation. The Saints' lone game without a TD of any kind last year was in Week 12 against the Falcons, and that took two red zone turnovers come true. There are a few troubling defenses this year, but hey, what's the harm?

But still, I'm looking more toward the long odds bets. In terms of anything +1000 or longer, there is one that catches my eye as most likely to actually hit ... and it might surprise you: Dennis Allen coach of the year (+6000) .

OK, now hear me out. These bets have long odds for a reason. There's no such thing as a safe bet that wins big, so that's not the goal. The question has to be: Does this actually HAVE A CHANCE to hit. No, Derek Carr isn't going to win MVP, and it's really hard to see Olave having a chance at OPOY, which would be second on my list.

So why DA? Well, these awards are almost always expectation vs reality, and the fact of the matter is the expectations are VERY low. If the Saints went out and had everything go right, win 12-13 games, host a playoff game. The new offense hits, the defense is what we've grown accustomed to. Why not DA?

It would probably come down to circumstance. I don't think many would've pegged Kevin Stefanski as the COY winner last preseason. He started the year at +2300 and his team only won 11 games. He took down the award because they made a playoff run with Joe Flacco starting at QB (also the comeback player of the year winner). If something like that happens again, it's tough to see the Saints finding their way to relevance with a backup.

At the end of the day, all of these bets are potential money losers. If you want to throw your hat in the ring anyway, $10 to win $600 seems like a risk/reward winner.

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