Ernesto on track to become hurricane while bringing life-threatening surf, flooding rain to Caribbean islands

Millions of people in the Caribbean are bracing for the wrath of Tropical Storm Ernesto as the fifth tropical storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season gets set to blast the region, including the US territories of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, with torrential rain, large and destructive surf and potentially life-threatening storm surge.

The tropics have been becoming more active over the past few weeks with the development of Hurricane Debby, which made its first landfall in Florida, and then a second landfall in South Carolina as a tropical storm.

And hot on its heels was Invest 98L and then Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, which began to organize as it moved over the warm waters of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and eventually became what is now Tropical Storm Ernesto.

With improved circulation and organization, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said strengthening seems likely with Ernesto.

What’s the forecast for Tropical Storm Ernesto?

Ernesto could soon form in Atlantic as odds of development for Invest 98L increase

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to move off to the west and will start to bring tropical storm conditions to the region on Tuesday.

The NHC said a wind gust of 53 mph was reported in St. Barthelemy, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area of the Leeward Islands over the next few hours, with the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico experiencing those conditions later on Tuesday.

In addition, the NHC said gradual strengthening is expected over the next few days, and Ernesto could reach hurricane strength by Thursday over the waters north of the Greater Antilles.

“Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands.  For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected,” the NHC said in an update on Tuesday.

Northeast braces for severe weather, flooding as deadly Debby travels north

The NHC said Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday morning, and near or over the US and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday night.

“After passing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Ernesto is forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic,” the NHC said,

The latest track places Ernesto near Bermuda later this week and this weekend. The NHC said it’s too soon to tell what impacts Ernesto could have on Bermuda.

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Where are watches and warnings in effect for Tropical Storm Ernesto?

Because of the threat that Tropical Storm Ernesto poses to the Leeward Islands, as well as Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, Tropical Storm Warnings are in place.

Heavy rainfall may result in flash flooding and mudslides on the islands through mid-week.

Will Tropical Storm Ernesto impact the US?

The NHC says Tropical Storm Ernesto will move west toward the Caribbean islands and eventually turn northward once it gets to Puerto Rico.

At this time, Ernesto is not expected to come in contact with the US.

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