Is Jamaal Bowman's primary defeat the beginning of the end for DC's Squad?

Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) will soon be out of a job. The incumbent congressman lost New York's 16th District primary last Tuesday to challenger George Latimer, who will carry the Democratic Party's banner into the general election this November. Bowman was ousted by double-digit margins following the most expensive primary in the history of the House of Representatives.

Bowman was one of the most liberal members of Congress as a part of the progressive "Squad," a group that includes notable names like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.). But he was besieged by controversies over his views on the war in Gaza, which some perceived as antisemitic , as well as an incident in which he falsely pulled a fire alarm on Capitol Hill. Bowman's defeat makes him the first person in the Squad to lose their reelection bid this cycle, giving rise to questions regarding the fate of other members of the Squad and how they may fare in their own elections.

What did the commentators say?

Bowman defeated a 16-term incumbent in 2020 in a stunning upset, but now the "Democratic establishment in the Empire State and beyond has struck back," said Eric Garcia for The Independent . This shows that "even when progressives vote largely in line with the establishment and even when they can sometimes pull off shockers while the establishment is napping," the Democratic Party "lacks the infrastructure to protect their leaders, particularly when they have vulnerable incumbents."

The primary was the most expensive in House history largely because of efforts to oust Bowman from pro-Israel groups like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee . But his stance on Israel "only accounts for one reason why AIPAC and pro-Israel groups targeted him," said Garcia. Most of AIPAC's ads "did not focus on his support for Palestinians or his criticism of Israel," but instead targeted his "no" vote against President Joe Biden's infrastructure bill.

Indeed, Bowman's problems "can't be attributed to one thing," said Nia Prater for Intelligencer . Beyond his personal controversies, Bowman "lost the majority-Black community Wakefield and had the Co-Op City housing development returned to his district while the Westchester County portions of the district were largely untouched."

But whatever the true reason for his loss, Bowman's ousting "drove home an unmistakable reality: Even at a moment when the war in Gaza has re-energized progressive activism, many of the left's candidates are no longer gaining ground in major races, and in some cases they have started losing it," said Jesse McKinley and Nicholas Fandos for The New York Times . Moderate Democrats that are more closely aligned to Biden seem to be "regaining their footing, often by explicitly positioning themselves to the right of their Democratic opponents on immigration, foreign policy and public safety." The outcome of Bowman's election has "left progressives on the defensive," and allies were "at odds over who was to blame and how — if at all — their movement needed to change its message and confrontational style to meet a different moment in American politics."

What next?

The next test of the Squad's strength is likely to occur during the Aug. 6 Democratic primary in Missouri's 1st District. Rep. Cori Bush, another well-known member of the Squad, will look to defend her seat, but polls show Bush in a "horserace that is seeing some of the same factors — opposition to Israel; strife with Biden; and non-ideological fumbles," said USA Today . Bush's challenger, St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell, has "positioned himself as more moderate than her on a host of issues."

Despite Bowman's loss, it "may be difficult for moderate forces to gain wider momentum this year against left-wing Democrats , many of whom are heavily armored against primary challenges," said Politico . Notably, both "Bush and Bowman have been weighed down by serious political weaknesses that set them apart from other progressives — and make them far more vulnerable to groups like AIPAC." While these kinds of lobbying groups are "going after candidates with baggage, they're skipping other races where their investments might not make much of a difference." So Bowman's loss "could prove to be effective fodder as progressives ramp up their attacks against AIPAC," but it will seemingly depend on the individual races in question.