New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), the grid operator for the state, released its long-term assessment of future transmission and generation investment opportunities.
NYISO’s 2023-2042 System & Resource Outlook said that electricity demand is expected to increase by 50 percent to 90 percent over the course of the 20-year study horizon. The increase will be driven by electrification of housing and transportation sectors, as well as energy-intensive economic development projects.
The outlook states that while historic levels of investment in the transmission system have been made, more is necessary to achieve public policy mandates. Specifically, additional voltage support facilities need to be added to the grid in upstate New York to fully employ the transmission facilities already in place. Further, opportunities for more transmission investment in Western and Northern New York should be monitored as generation is developed in those regions.
“Recent transmission investments are making great strides towards the full integration of renewable power across New York State,” Zach Smith, senior vice president of system and resource planning at the New York Independent System Operator, said. “More will be needed, however, to maintain system reliability and achieve public policies.”
The assessment indicates that between 100 and 130 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity will be needed to reliably meet forecasts in increased demand. Of that amount, at least 20 GW of dispatchable emission-free resources (DEFR) will be needed by 2040 to replace the current 25.3 GW of conventional fossil-based generation.
The outlook highlights that future DEFR technologies could include long-duration batteries, small modular nuclear reactors, hydrogen-powered generators, and fuel cells. At present, no DEFR technology is available at a commercial scale.
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