Snow on the way? Some lake-effect possible.

After a fairly mild and dry start to the fall season, the weather pattern has become active and colder across Northeast Ohio as we head into the middle of October, and we'll now get our first shot at snow.

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The chilliest air of the season has moved in to begin the new work week behind a cold front. This will keep Northeast Ohio below average through the middle of the week and provide the first chance of seeing some wintry precipitation this season.

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A second round of widespread lake effect will begin to arrive during the evening and overnight as colder air moves over a warm Lake Erie. Lake temperatures are still well into the lower and mid-60s.

A roughly 20-degree difference between the lake temperature and the air temperature causes the lake effect machine to ramp up.

This will mostly be rain, as temperatures at the surface are well above the freezing mark, but as colder air filters in some areas that see some wet snow mixing in. The snow belt region will have the best shot at seeing some wet snow mixing in, especially in higher elevations.

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The best chance of seeing any mixed precipitation will be late Monday night into Tuesday morning. I am not anticipating any accumulation with any of the wintry precipitation, but rainfall totals will be fairly substantial. A half inch to as much as an inch will be possible tonight through Tuesday.

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This pattern will begin to break by Wednesday morning as high pressure begins to build in from the west. This will bring more seasonal warmth and sunshine back to the region to wrap up the week.

Lake effect snow , explained:

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