An early look at our Fall color potential in Western New York

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — A few cool days and nights recently might have you wondering, what fall might look like this year.

Generally, it’s hard to say for certain exactly how vibrant, dull, or long-lasting the colors will be until they happen. But there are some broad patterns, and signals that we can look for in the months leading up to fall that can influence the season and give us some insight beforehand.

For example, year to date, 2024 has been one of, if not for some the hottest year on record across the northeast, including here in Rochester. Despite some bursts of cooler weather, it’s a trend that looks to continue according to long-range outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center’s 3-month outlook which covers the Fall season.

If the outlook from the CPC holds, according to Dr. Bill Keeton, a professor of Forestry from the University of Vermont, the continued warmth can make it more difficult for fall colors to emerge.

“A really warm summer extending into the fall, particularly if the nighttime temperatures remain warm, would have a delaying effect on the onset. And then at the same time, there is concern that the overall length of the foliage season might be compressed. So given the trend that we’re seeing right now, this summer, this is a possibility.”

There are other long-term patterns you can also watch for, including how the previous season might have impacted the health of the tree leading into its dormant season over the winter.

“There is also a carryover of physiological stress from the previous year. So if the previous year, a year and a half ago was cloudy or excessively wet, that affects the tree’s ability to store up energy basically in the root systems over the winter, which then affects the production of leaves and foliage the following year,” said Dr. Keeton.

Looking back, 2023 was one of the wettest summers on record in Rochester. Despite that much of Western New York saw below-average amounts of precipitation during the summer and into the Fall which led to duller colors through the Finger Lakes and Genesee Valley at times. This year, precipitation across Western New York has been much nearer to average through the summer, while in parts of the southern Tier, the North Country, northern Vermont, and other parts of New England excessive rainfall has been an ongoing issue.

Another issue across much of the Northeast last year that was detrimental to fall colors reaching their full potential was issues stemming from diseases that can affect the leaves themselves. Some of which can be exacerbated by excessive rainfall.

“We’re talking about leaf stains, leaf blights, some of these things. To be completely honest with you, I have not heard reports this summer of any severe leaf pathogen outbreaks. So my prediction would be that that’s probably not going to be as much of a concern this year as it was last year,” said Dr. Keeton.

Those pathogenic issues along with other factors can also lead to premature dropping of the leaves, where they brown up and fall off the trees before the chemical change that produces the vibrant colors can begin and from what Dr. Keeton has seen in his region, this has already happened for some trees.

“I am a little bit concerned though, I will say just anecdotally, by some of the browning up I’ve been seeing around. I feel like I’ve been seeing trees browning up and dropping their leaves earlier and more abundantly than I would have expected.”

He went on to add, that it may be due to the higher-than-average rainfall through Vermont and other areas so far this year. Regionally it’s easy to draw broad conclusions, but vibrancy and length of color will also depend greatly on local conditions. Making current observations and inferences for the season ahead in parts of New England not always as impactful to our eventual outcome in Western New York.

If you do want to focus on much broader changes, that go beyond just a specific area Dr. Keeton also made note of the impact changes to the climate have made on the fall foliage season.

“The bottom line is that with our warming summers and the lengthening growing seasons, what we’re seeing is a later onset of fall foliage. This is statistically significant. We’ve seen the onset of the peak foliage lengthened by a week or more over the last couple of decades.”

When it comes down to expectations as of now in our region. In Western New York we haven’t had the worst lead-up to a fall season when it comes to good fall foliage. Importantly, we’ve just been near normal with precipitation this year. Too much or too little rain and we’d lean towards the expectation of some duller colors. While the amount of rain isn’t the end all, be all for vibrancy, it lessens the impact of at least one variable. We’ll just have to hope for some warm days and cooler nights as we head toward the Fall, because without that day-to-night contrast, the leaves won’t change much, and they’ll just begin to fall.

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