A strong geomagnetic storm was underway earlier Thursday as energy from the Sun finally made the journey to us on Earth. Peaking at G3, such a storm is more than capable of producing naked-eye auroras from dark locations across WNY. But there’s the rub. It’s not dark yet.

So, where does that leave us when it does get dark later tonight (Rochester sunset is 7:25pm tonight)? This first wave is already in the process of diminishing. It’ll take time winding down & it’s possible a muted display is able to linger until nightfall. Unfortunately, that’s not the best pathway of achieving a worthwhile show as we’re fighting an uphill battle against the clock. The good news is that NOAA continues to suggest additional waves of energy could strike our planet later tonight. That would, in theory, allow conditions to spike back up again.

That to me is what we’re rooting for out of this. Shy of a fresh jolt to our magnetosphere, tonight likely won’t be worthwhile. But, if a fresh jolt does occur, the interaction with already active conditions could set up a nice display under mainly clear skies. Just no telling if/when that new jolt gets here.

What about all that smoke?

Yep, it’s a problem.

I was out with my camera around 2am this morning when curtains of pink were on the horizon. I’ll be the first to tell you smoke was a noticeable impediment to getting good shots. Will it block the show entirely? No, it won’t. But it will make it that much tougher to photograph and necessitate a stronger overall show to become naked-eye visible. If we can get back up to G3, that’d be enough. A weaker G1-G2 will be a hazy mess.

We’ll have updates as nightfall approaches.

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