Helene now expected to be a CAT 4 at landfall late Thursday

The clock is ticking on an imminent Florida landfall of Hurricane Helene. As of Wednesday night, Helene maintains maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, making it a CAT 1. Signs of organization have been relatively slow up to this point, but the writing is on the wall that rapid intensification should occur over the next 24 hours.

The longer this takes to get going, the better. The fact of the matter is, despite favorable environmental conditions, Helene’s quickening pace will limit the amount of time it has to cook over those very warm Gulf waters. If the cascade of deepening is slow, it could throttle it’s attempt to get to CAT 4 status. As of now, that’s the forecast from the National Hurricane Center.

Should that forecast prove accurate, this will be a significant affair for parts of Florida. Wording from the NHC is quite strong tonight-

KEY MESSAGES:

1. A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions
of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high
as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves. There
is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder
of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. Residents in those
areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if
told to do so.

2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected
within the eyewall of Helene when it makes landfall in the Florida
Big Bend region late Thursday. Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed by early Thursday before tropical
storm conditions arrive. Damaging and life-threatening
hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will penetrate well
inland over portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia late
Thursday and Thursday night where Hurricane Warnings are in effect.
Strong wind gusts are also likely farther north across portions of
northern Georgia and the Carolinas, particularly over the higher
terrain of the southern Appalachians.

3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
including landslides, is expected across portions of the southern
Appalachians through Friday. Considerable to locally catastrophic
flash and urban flooding is likely for northwestern and northern
Florida and the Southeast through Friday. Widespread minor to
moderate river flooding is likely, and isolated major river flooding
is possible.

Helene will merge with an upper level low post-landfall and deposit rain well inland for several days. I think it's unlikely we deal with any wet weather from this through the weekend, but a canopy of high clouds could spill overhead. Depending on the eventual motion of that leftover merger, it's possible we see some rain early next week.

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