“Severe” geomagnetic storm now underway. We’re on aurora watch tonight

We had one heck of the northern lights display Monday night. If NOAA’s forecast is correct, Thursday night’s display could be even better.

UPDATE: Our anticipated Sun burp has indeed arrived on schedule, igniting G4 conditions. Now we play the game of hoping they hold on through (and beyond) nightfall.

It’s important to remember, forecasting space weather is an exceptionally difficult task. In my experience, these forecasts seldom go perfectly as expected. Both timing and magnitude of northern lights displays often operate by their own rules. As such, it’s important to stay up to date on the latest information before making plans to head out to see the show.

If NOAA’s timing and impact is to be taken at face value, this is encouraging. Timing is great with G4 conditions lingering after dark. I’m slightly concerned models are clearing our skies out too fast and dramatically tonight. My gut says lake effect clouds will linger, but perhaps not to such a degree as to block the show. We might have to exercise some patience to get appreciable clearing at times.

The Moon will be around 50% illumination but will set at 11:39pm. Wildfire smoke should also not be a problem Thursday night (but will return into Friday). All-in, if NOAA is correct on this one, I don’t see any major red flags to get in the way of us enjoying a dazzling display.

Stay tuned.

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