“Severe” northern lights display possible Thursday night

We had one heck of the northern lights display Monday night. If NOAA’s forecast is correct, Thursday night’s display could be even better.

The arrival of a potent Sun burp is expected to impact our planet Thursday. In the wake of this energy, NOAA suggests G4 conditions could develop into Thursday night. At G4, vivid naked eye auroras would be possible from WNY. Photographic auroras could even spill into the Deep South.

It’s important to remember, forecasting space weather is an exceptionally difficult task. In my experience, these forecasts seldom go perfectly as expected. Both timing and magnitude of northern lights displays often operate by their own rules. As such, it’s important to stay up to date on the latest information before making plans to head out to see the show.

If NOAA’s timing and impact is to be taken at face value, this is encouraging. Timing is great with G4 conditions lingering after dark. While I suspect there will still be some lake effect clouds lingering, the overall sky cover leans partly cloudy to mostly clear.

The Moon will be around 50% illumination but will set at 11:39pm. Wildfire smoke should also not be a problem Thursday night (but will return into Friday). All-in, if NOAA is correct on this one, I don’t see any major red flags to get in the way of us enjoying a dazzling display.

Stay tuned.

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