Russia-Ukraine War Daily Brief (May 9, 2022)

ISW

Key Takeaways

Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances to the southeast or southwest of Izyum on May 9. Russian forces are likely continuing to amass troops in Belgorod Oblast to stop Ukrainian counterattacks around Kharkiv City. Russian authorities are likely setting conditions to integrate occupied Ukrainian territories directly into Russia. The Kremlin continues to face severe force mobilization challenges.

US: No Signs of a New Major Russian Mobilization

A US defense official says US has not observed any indicators of a “new major Russian mobilization’ although Wagner Group “urgently’ requested hundreds of thousands of additional troops to reinforce Russian efforts in Donbas. The official noted that Russia currently has 97 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) in Ukraine, but that BTGs have been moving in and out of Ukraine to refit and resupply suggesting that Russian troops continue to sustain substantial damage in combat.

Russian troops in Ukraine continue to display low morale and poor discipline

A senior US defense official claimed that Russian troops in Donbas are failing to obey orders from top generals. Russian forces deployed to the Zaporizhzhia area reportedly are experiencing very low morale. They complain about the ineffectiveness of operations in the area, frequently abuse alcohol, and shoot at their own vehicles in order to avoid going to the frontline.

Russian authorities are likely setting conditions to integrate occupied Ukrainian territories directly into Russia

The Kherson occupation Deputy Chairman of Military Civil Administration Kirill Stremousov stated on May 9 that the Kherton region intends to become part of Russia. Russian occupation authorities are intensifying reconnaissance measures and increasing checkpoints and patrols in occupied areas. ISW will publish our assessment of the Kremlin’s most likely course of actions towards their occupied territories in Ukraine in the coming days.

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