Study Finds Population Decline

DOYLESTOWN, Pa. -- A peak into the near future finds Bucks County’s population will drop 7.5 percent, or by 48,596 people, over the next 30 years while other suburban Philadelphia counties instead see growth, according to a new study, citing aging Baby Boomers and a stagnant birth rate as major causes for the decline.

Half the county’s population here today is near or past retirement age, and family size is smaller and below the growth rate.

The study, by the Center for Rural Pennsylvania and the Pennsylvania Data Center, said Bucks is one of only three urban Pennsylvania counties expected to experience a population drop along with Beaver and Westmoreland counties.

The center defines a county as rural or urban based on whether it has more or fewer than 291 people per square mile. At approximately 622 square miles and an estimated 646,112 people in 2020, Bucks County is urban with about 1,038 people per square mile.

The decline in Bucks’ population is due to two elements, said center Executive Director Kyle Kopko.

“The main driver in Bucks County overall is going to be births and deaths being out of balance,” he said, adding the change in demographics means leaders must focus now on the impact because a changing population affects virtually all areas of public policy.

“Every community is going to need to decide this for themselves,” he said. “My biggest concern is that communities will not take account of these trends and then they’re going to be caught off guard.”

To that end, Bucks County’s 20-year comprehensive plan examines the big picture, and is expected to be released in February, said county Commissioner Vice Chair Bob Harvie. “Smart growth” is necessary, he has said.

“You want to try to make a change that you can be comfortable with and manage that change in a way that benefits, you know, your residents and is done in a smart way,” Harvie reportedly said.

The predicted population drop in Bucks over the coming 30 years is a trend now in place in some rural locations, said Kopko.

“Birth and death rates off balance is not a new trend by any means,” said Kopko. “It’s something we’ve seen in our rural communities for many, many years, and now it’s starting to hit some of our urban areas as well.”

In Bucks, more than half of the population today is near or past retirement age, according to the study. The fertility rate in Bucks is 1.61 children, which is below the 2.1 that spurs natural population growth.

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