Studies find that illegal immigration rising in U.S., but estimates on how much vary

One scenario forecasts 30 million migrants trying to enter U.S. in next three decades

As immigration becomes a bigger issue for the U.S. 2024 election season, estimates on exactly how many illegal immigrants are in the U.S. vary.

The Migration Policy Institute recently estimated there were 11.2 million unauthorized immigrants living in the United States in 2021. That was a small increase of 1.8 percent from 2019 under Donald Trump, when there were an estimated 11.0 million illegal residents.

Other estimates range from 10.5 million [Pew Research Center] to 11.5 million [Center for Immigration Studies]. The latter conservative think tank estimated that 1.2 million unauthorized immigrants ventured into the U.S. during the first 13 months of Joe Biden's administration, about a 12 percent rise. U.S. Rep. Tom McClintock, a Republican from California and strong Trump supporter, claimed without providing evidence in a recent speech that 3.3 million "illegal aliens" entered the country since early 2021.

Even the more nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute noted that trends pointed towards a greater increase in unauthorized immigration since 2021. "A combination of the easing of pandemic-era travel restrictions, increasing displacement due to global conflict and climate events, and shifts in regional migration have led to increased migration in the Americas and worldwide," the institute reported.

In fiscal 2023, the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement removed 143,000 migrants, almost double the number in fiscal 2022. But that was still below the 234,000 annual average during Trump’s term and 344,000 average under Barack Obama. While Mexico and Central America still dominate the home nations of people trying to cross the southern border, more migrants from nations such as Russia, Turkey, and India have been showing up in recent years.

Visa overstays, where foreign visitors on travel visas remain in the U.S., are cited by some as adding more unauthorized immigrants than border crossings. In fiscal 2022, some 853,955 visitors remained in the country beyond their visas' allowed time, according to U.S. Department of Homeland Security figures. The highest numbers came from Venezuela [173,000] and Mexico [124,000]. China and India provided other significant overstays.

Some laud immigrants, while others use them as scapegoats.Photo byNitish Meena/ Unsplash

Studies: Unauthorized immigrants cause less crime than native-born Americans, aid economy

Rep. McClintock, whose district include Yosemite National Park, claimed that law enforcement was "overwhelmed by dealing with the accompanying crimes" by "illegal aliens." He further stated that veterans were kicked out of nursing homes and mothers had to "drive three hours to deliver their babies" because unauthorized visitors were taking up hospital beds.

That conclusion about causing crime has been challenged through studies. A Cato Institute study found that the criminal conviction rate of native-born Americans in Texas was about double that of the illegal immigrant criminal conviction rate. The number of noncitizens arrested by Border Patrol agents who were previously convicted of homicide or manslaughter dropped to 29 in fiscal 2023 from 62 in fiscal 2022, according to federal figures. The number arrested who were involved in illegal drug trafficking or possession also declined from 2,239 to 2,055. That's out of about 1,000,000 annual illegal visitors if the higher estimates were correct.

Others noted that most unauthorized visitors were in the U.S. trying to make some money and gain a better life, and they worked hard to steer clear of authorities. About three-quarters of U.S. adults agreed that "undocumented immigrants mostly fill jobs U.S. citizens do not want," according to Pew Research. Those include as farm laborers, construction and light industrial employees, hotel and office custodial workers, and restaurant help. Even Trump's golf courses have hired illegal immigrants.

The U.S. civilian workforce included some 7.8 million undocumented immigrants in 2021, about 5 percent of the labor force, according to Pew Research. That was up from 7.4 million in 2019 but down from 8.2 million in 2007, after rising from 3.6 million in 1995. Nevada [9%] and Texas [8%] had the highest shares of unauthorized immigrants in states' workforces.

Most illegal immigrants, about 6.2 million, were from Mexico and Central America, with some 1.7 million from Asia, according to Pew Research.

With unauthorized workers so ingrained into the economy, deporting all of them would have a disastrous impact, some economists believe. Sectors such as construction, agriculture, housing, and personal services would be drastically impacted. In Florida, construction projects' costs increased after officials passed new laws targeting unauthorized workers.

Industry groups regularly complain about the lack of available workers. “As wage rates continue to rise along with the demand for farmworkers, farm families are being forced to take a hard look at their balance sheets just to stay afloat,” said Zippy Duvall, president of the agricultural advocacy group American Farm Bureau Federation. “Farming and ranching is a labor intensive business.... Margins remain slim on the farm.”

The bureau calls for an “adjustment of status” for experienced, unauthorized agricultural workers, as well as a “more affordable” guest worker visa program administered by the USDA.

Impact on health care, social programs

Relatively few illegal immigrants have health insurance since most can’t exactly get access to programs such as Medicare and Medicaid. Some obtain coverage through their university, employer, or as a spouse or dependent of an employee. And a few purchase expensive plans through private coverage outside of the regular market.

Several states, including California, New York, and Illinois, offer limited health coverage for uninsured, undocumented children, according to the National Immigration Forum. Some 18 states provide prenatal care.

Many go to hospital emergency rooms to seek care. Hospitals are required to provide aid to such patients, and Medicaid helps offset some costs. Estimates on what this costs range wildly, from about $1 billion to $18.5 billion a year.

Social program costs, such as aid for food and shelter, are another factor. New York officials projected that city spent some $5 billion caring for migrants in the 2023 fiscal year.

Other studies estimate that illegal immigrants contribute some $20 billion in federal taxes and $12 billion in state and local taxes annually through their employers, rental payments, and sales taxes. Some could file federal and state income tax forms using an Individual Taxpayer Identification Number that the IRS issues to groups that include noncitizens.

30 million try to enter U.S. in next three decades?

Looking father ahead, the outlook on migratory patterns appears increasingly bleak to many. By 2030, some 40 percent of the world's population could live in urban slums, according to the World Bank. By 2070, deserts, which now comprise less than 1 percent of the planet, could cover almost 20 percent of the earth, according to a ProPublica/New York Times report. By 2100, temperatures in some places, including Asia, could become so hot that merely going outside for a few hours could cause death.

In an extreme scenario, more than 30 million migrants could try to enter the U.S. over the next three decades. Leaders of wealthier countries could close borders and reduce foreign aid.

"And therein lies the basis for what may be the worst-case scenario: one in which America and the rest of the developed world refuse to welcome migrants but also fail to help them at home," reported ProPublica. "As our model demonstrated, closing borders while stinting on development creates a somewhat counterintuitive population surge even as temperatures rise, trapping more and more people in places that are increasingly unsuited to human life."

In that scenario, the annual worldwide death toll from heat alone will eventually rise by 1.5 million. More will die from starvation and in wars started over dwindling food and water resources. "If this happens, the United States and Europe risk walling themselves in, as much as walling others out," ProPublica reported. "And so the question then is: What are policymakers and planners prepared to do about that?"

The United Nations started a "sustainable development" agenda in 2015, working on not just climate control programs but ones that helped reduce poverty and migration in poorer countries. One project by the Norwegian Refugee Council helps people in Kenya build water systems with solar-powered pumps.

Still, the increasing popularity of right-wing leaders in Holland, Italy, and other countries leads some analysts to believe that the wealthier nations will more likely close borders and reduce foreign aid to Ukraine and other nations if migratory patterns grow.