Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) likes to keep the political world on the edge, and he's doing so again by teasing a “long-shot scenario” to reconsider his retirement as West Virginia 's senior senator.
The 76-year-old Democrat had discussed a situation where he may make a late entry into the Senate race as an independent with the backing of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) but also conceded he is unlikely to reconsider his decision not to run for reelection.
“I think that’s a long, long, long-shot scenario,” Manchin told CNN . “So I don’t anticipate that happening.”
Democratic sources with knowledge of the senator’s thinking say he could decide to get into the race if Don Blankenship wins the Democratic primary in the state. The former West Virginia coal executive filed paperwork in late January to run as a Democrat in the seat that’s being vacated by Manchin after losing the election by a wide margin when he ran for Senate as a Republican in 2018.
Blankenship was found guilty in 2015 of conspiring to violate federal safety standards at a coal mine that suffered a 2010 explosion that killed 29 people, and Manchin admitted his thinking could change if Blankenship became the nominee and faced off against Republican front-runner Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV).
“I understand the scenario,” Manchin told CNN. “I want my state to be represented properly for someone who has a passion for our state. So we just have to see what unfolds. Really, after the primary.”
Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist, said he thinks it could be a good move for Manchin to get in the race if Blankenship becomes the Democratic nominee in an effort to give Democrats and independents in the state an alternative option.
“The Democrats that are left in West Virginia, and I think there are actually still quite a bit of partisan affiliation leftover from the old days there, they will not turn out for Don Blankenship, and neither will independents,” Reinish said.
Manchin has until the Aug. 1 filing deadline to make a final decision about whether to jump in as an independent. He announced in November that he would not run for reelection in the Senate this fall. After much speculation, he also decided against mounting a third-party run for president.
If Manchin gets into the race, Reinish believes there’s a scenario where he could have a pathway to a plurality of voters.
“I think he could siphon votes away from Jim Justice. I don’t think it helps Justice whatsoever,” he said. “I would rather have Joe Manchin’s vote as an independent in the Senate than Jim Justice's vote as a Republican in the Senate. I would also say this: Joe Manchin has been an independent all but in name for many, many years and certainly increasingly so in recent years, so this wouldn't be a surprise.”
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The map of Senate seats up for election in 2024 is favorable for Republicans. Twenty Democratic-held seats are up, as are the three held by independents who caucus with the Democrats. Just 10 seats controlled by Republicans will be on the ballot. However, a late entry by Manchin into the West Virginia Senate race as an independent could shake things up after many had already counted West Virginia as a win for Republicans after Manchin’s decision to retire.
“I know Manchin said this situation isn’t likely, but boy this would make this cycle so much more interesting! I personally hope he does it because it would force Republicans once again to invest resources and time in the state and shift the attention away from others that they marked as a high priority,” said a West Virginia Democrat speaking on the condition of anonymity to weigh in on the scenario.
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