Northeast Ohio voter turnout 50% lower than past presidential primaries

A voter shows identification to an election judge during primary voting on May 3, 2022 in Lordstown, Ohio. (Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)

Early voting numbers are still being calculated, but the primary has significantly lower turnout than in previous presidential election years. The Cuyahoga County Board of Elections believes it is because of uncompetitive primaries for the nation’s leader.

WEWS/OCJ Statehouse reporter Morgan Trau did her annual analysis on the early voting data that is being reported for mail-in and in-person early voting. She used raw data coming from Boards of Elections either through archives or through reaching out to the boards for information.

Trau found that the turnout has dropped 50%.

Disclaimer: 2020 voting was different, as there was no election-day in-person voting due pandemic. Instead, WEWS is comparing to 2016 and 2012. Numbers have been rounded for clarity. Some counties do not differentiate between mail-in and in-person voting — counting it all as absentee.

Analysis

Cuyahoga County Democrats have so far returned 29,000, Republicans 16,000 and nonpartisan 2,000. The in-person voting total has been 8,000.

This is a stark difference from both 2016 and 2012.

2016

Cuyahoga Democrats returned 55,000, Republicans 32,000 and nonpartisan 3,000.

2012

Cuyahoga Democrats returned 63,000, Republicans 26,000 and nonpartisan 5,000.

Now

The early voting turnout for the 2024 primary in Cuyahoga has dropped 50% from 2012 and 47% from 2016.

Plus, 2020 popularized absentee voting, as demonstrated by the following elections, especially in 2022 and 2023.

Early voting is significantly less than the off-year special election’s absentees in August of last year when only one issue was on the ballot.

For that election, Cuyahoga Democrats returned 43,000 mail-in ballots, Republicans 15,000 and nonpartisan 16,000 — plus 22,000 in person. The county has dropped 51% since August 2023.

Statewide

The two other election powerhouses — Franklin and Hamilton Counties — are also seeing low turnout in the 2024 primary so far, as is Summit County. Columbus is in Franklin, and Cincinnati is in Hamilton.

Franklin Democrats returned 8,000 primary ballots this year, Republicans 6,000 and nonpartisan 70. Hamilton Democrats returned 9,000, Republicans 7,000 and nonpartisan 110. Summit Democrats returned 8,000 mail-in ballots, Republicans 6,000 and nonpartisan 200.

Counties like Stark, Mahoning, which has Youngstown, and Montgomery, which has Dayton, and Lucas, which has Toledo, are seeing the same trend.

Here’s how early voting numbers in those counties broke down:

Stark County
Democrats: 2,000
Republican: 2,000
Nonpartisan: 200

Mahoning County
Democrats: 5,000
Republicans: 4,000
Nonpartisan: 200

Montgomery County
Democrats: 8,000
Republicans: 5,000
Nonpartisan: 500

Lucas County
Democrats: 9,000
Republicans: 4,000
Nonpartisan: 900

It isn’t just urban areas, either. Here’s how Northeast Ohio’s rural counties voted early:

Lorain County
Democrats: 7,000
Republicans: 6,000
Nonpartisan: 300

Lake County
Democrats: 4,000
Republicans: 5,000
Nonpartisan: 200

Medina County
Democrats: 4,000
Republicans: 6,000
Nonpartisan: 700

Geauga County
Democrats: 2,000
Republicans: 4,000
Nonpartisan: 50

Portage County
Democrats: 2,000
Republicans: 3,000
Nonpartisan: 200

Ashtabula County
Democrats: 1,000
Republicans: 2,000
Nonpartisan: 100

Reasoning

It is likely due to the uncompetitive presidential primaries, said Cuyahoga County Board of Elections Director Tony Perlatti.

Every other candidate for president in both the Democratic and Republican primary has either dropped out or suspended their campaigns — making President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump the assumed candidates for the 2024 race.

“I think that kind of dampens some of the turnout,” Perlatti said. “Then, as far as issues — while Issue 26 is a very important… It doesn’t bring the folks out like they did last August… with Issue 1.”

There are also counties and precincts across the state that have few options on the ballot for partisans to choose from. In many cases, only one person is running for a position.

“What is available to individuals isn’t as exciting for them,” the director continued.

Most voters in the county are unaffiliated, as well, so they could not want to register with a party, he added.

He is guessing there will be from 20% to 30% turnout, compared to about 40% normally.

This article was originally published on News5Cleveland.com and is published in the Ohio Capital Journal under a content-sharing agreement. Unlike other OCJ articles, it is not available for free republication by other news outlets as it is owned by WEWS in Cleveland.

Follow WEWS statehouse reporter Morgan Trau on Twitter and Facebook .

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