The Los Angeles Dodger's Mookie Magic

By Daniel R. Epstein

I made a mistake.

In various places, I predicted Freddie Freeman to win the NL MVP, but after thinking it through, I now believe that is impossible. This has nothing to do with Freeman, who remains an excellent player, a former MVP, and probably a future Hall of Famer. The problem is that there’s almost no foreseeable way for MVP voters to see him as the most valuable player in his own dugout, let alone the National League.

Last season, Freeman slashed .332/.410/.567 with 59 doubles and 23 stolen bases. That’s an MVP-caliber season in a different year, and he finished third in the voting. Ronald Acuña Jr. took home the award with the first-ever 40-70 campaign, but Mookie Betts finished second with an NL-best 8.3 WAR (Baseball-Reference version). His batting line was .307/.408/.579 with 39 home runs—comparable numbers to Freeman’s—but his niftiest trick was playing 86 games at second base and shortstop after winning six Gold Gloves in right field.

It’s several months too early to think about whose numbers merit MVP consideration in 2024, but no one is off to a faster start than Betts. Through Sunday’s games, he leads the league in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, home runs, hits, runs scored, RBI, and walks. That isn’t sustainable—obviously, no one can maintain a .500/.621/.1.136 batting line—but let’s say both he and Freeman are near the top of the league in most categories at the finish line. The honor has to go to the middle infielder over the first baseman.

He’s not a normal middle infielder though. The Dodgers have deployed him at shortstop against right-handed pitching and at second base against lefties to facilitate a Gavin Lux/Miguel Rojas platoon. If that keeps going, he will be the 16th player in MLB history with at least 100 career games played in right field and at each middle infield spot. Most of the players on that list were nondescript utilitymen. The only Hall of Famer is John Ward, who actually commenced his career as a pitcher in 1878, then played four years as an outfielder before moving to shortstop full-time and later second base. Betts played more than 1,000 games as an outfielder before making a permanent move to the middle infield, which is unprecedented in the history of MLB.

Mookie Betts with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the outfield during a 2023 game at Progressive Field in ClevelandPhoto byErik Drost

Offensively, Betts’ all-around dominance has made him one of baseball’s best since he debuted in 2014, but his bat looks even more special relative to his new defensive positions. Last season, he posted a 163 OPS+, meaning his offense was 63% above league average. That’s a great number, but it isn’t memorable in its own right. There have been 499 player seasons with at least 500 plate appearances and an OPS+ of 163 or better in baseball history. However, the only other player with a 163 OPS+ who played at least five games at second base, shortstop, and right field was King Kelly in 1886.

Let’s say he repeats his 163 OPS+ this year while playing both middle infield spots. No player has compiled a 163 OPS+ with at least 20 games at both second base and shortstop in a season since Nap Lajoie in 1904. Even if we just focus on guys who played either second or short as their primary position, only six middle infielders have posted a 163 OPS+ in the Expansion Era: Joe Morgan (1975 and 1976), Rico Petrocelli (1969), Álex Rodríguez (2000), Corey Seager (2023), Fernando Tatis Jr. (2021), and Robin Yount (1982).

Betts might not replicate his 163 OPS+. His career mark is 139, though he’s up to 344 through the first six games of 2024. He probably won’t win the MVP either, simply because if it’s one player vs. the field, you always have to bet on the field. But as good of a hitter as he is, with as much positional value as he adds, it’ll be impossible for Freeman to outhit him by enough to overtake him in the voting.

I’ve already blown it on one prediction this year and April has barely begun. Hopefully, my others will make good. I picked the Astros to make the playoffs, which seems like a safe bet, so let’s see how they’re doing… oh. Maybe this isn’t my year.

Daniel R. Epstein serves as a co-director of the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America. His writing can be found at Baseball Prospectus, Forbes SportsMoney, and right here.