Severe Storms and Tornado Risk Tuesday, Maps Inside.

Photo byIowa Storm Center

A strong storm system will bring severe weather risks later tonight across western Iowa with a more elevated threat over central and southeast Iowa on Tuesday. Details below...

A surface low will develop over northeast Colorado today and slowly advance northeast. The latest forecast guidance suggests a cluster of thunderstorms should develop over western Iowa after 9 PM tonight heading into Tuesday morning with main threats of large hail and damaging winds. This activity will advance to the east through central Iowa by midday Tuesday and finally eastern Iowa later in the afternoon.

Behind the line, low-level cloud cover should clear out starting in southwest Iowa by late morning/early afternoon and working east into central and eastern Iowa. The atmosphere will become unstable Tuesday afternoon with severe thunderstorm development around 2-4 PM across southwest Iowa and spreading east. All hazards including exceptionally large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will be the threats through Tuesday evening.

The main tornado risk will extend along the warm frontal zone and surface dryline from central to southeast Iowa where we are growing concerned for a tornado outbreak later afternoon. This is something we will need to fine-tune once Tuesday hits. A widespread 1-3” of rain is likely near interstate 80 and points north with the highest numbers into far northern Iowa.

Additionally, the system will also have strong southeasterly surface winds with gusts of 30-50 MPH Tuesday afternoon. A final forecast will follow Tuesday regarding the evolution of tornado potential. The ISC rainfall forecast is below.

Stay tuned to Iowa Storm Center.com for further updates.

Rain Forecast -

Photo byIowa Storm Center

Forecaster: Maurer