Too late – abortion ban has already hurt Republicans

Few issues in American politics are as contentious as the issue of abortion. Since the? Dobbs ?decision, many state governments have imposed various restrictions on abortion access, but none can compare to Arizona's 1864 law, part of the? Howell Code . This law "bans nearly all abortions" in the state.

The Arizona Supreme Court recently ruled in?? Planned Parenthood v. Mayes ?that the 1864 law was? enforceable . The GOP has maintained a staunch anti-abortion stance. But this ancient law that predates Arizona's statehood has some notable Republicans up in arms from former President? Donald Trump ?to Senate hopeful? Kari Lake . Lake stated that the ruling was " out of step with Arizonans ."

As a? battleground state ?for the 2024 election, contentious? wedge issues ?can make or break a candidate. As we learned in the 2022 midterms, hard-right campaigns? don't bode ?well with Arizona voters, making then-Gov. Doug Ducey's more pragmatic? 15-week ban ?a more palatable policy to the public.

Conservatives backpedaling and advocating for moderate policies might be a? good strategy ?for attracting independent voters. It is too little, too late. Republicans switching their positions on abortion in poor timing will alienate their voter base and will give Democrats leverage in the election.

From the standpoint of perception, moving toward the middle on abortion seems disingenuous and will turn off voters. A Pew poll shows that 49 % of Arizona adults believe that abortion should be legal in " most cases ." Getting this issue wrong is political suicide. Most right-wing politicians have been aggressively pro-life. Lake previously praised the idea of enforcing the 1864 territorial law. She called abortion the " ultimate sin. " Given her post commentary, Lake's sudden shift on the issue is perplexing.

The motives of prominent Republicans to overturn the law are to survive the 2024 election. After a dismal loss in 2022, the GOP cannot afford backlash on this divisive issue. Even in deep red states like? Ohio ,? Texas , and? Kentucky , pro-abortion rights measures have won at the ballot box.

Since there is significant support for abortion access, anyone with political savvy can see that alienating these voters would be disastrous. Changing your tune at the last minute during an election season will? only ?sit well with a few voters because recent polls show that Democratic Senate candidate Ruben Gallego has a? 12 % ?lead over Lake. If changing her stance seems opportunistic, it may deepen the deficit.

It is one thing to scare off swing voters but another to offend your base. The party has suffered from? deep fissures ?between the establishment and the populous wing in recent years. This schism has deepened in the debates over topics ranging? from Trump's impeachment? to the legitimacy of the? 2020 election results . Considering that? 76% ?of Republicans are pro-life, this might be the most unifying issue.

Arizona might have many independent voters, but more Arizonans are still registered as Republicans? (35.07 %). The unaffiliated voters will pull in the victory in a tight race, but conservatives still need to capture the Republican vote. Instead of mobilizing conservatives, " wishy-washy " policies on hot-button issues could leave Republicans staying home on election day.

While Republicans in the limelight are distancing themselves from the ban, this is proving to be a rallying point for Democrats. President Biden has capitalized on the prohibition and " blamed " his opponent's Supreme Court picks for the criminalization of abortion.

The left-leaning Arizona for Abortion Access, since the ruling, has quickly? gained ?the necessary signatures to get a ballot question that would enshrine abortion rights in the state Constitution.

Grassroots initiatives to protect abortion rights have increased by? 50% . Since reproductive rights are one of the crown jewels in the Democratic Party's platform, the abortion ban might be a boon for Biden's lagging campaign and Gallego's modest lead.

If you are a politician in a swing state, always tread lightly on wedge issues. If moving to the middle is not an option, assume a strong position and don't veer off course. Lousy timing, alienating your core voters, and giving your political adversaries red meat are recipes for a failed campaign.

Peter Clark is an Arizona-based writer and commentator.

 

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