$525B in Multifamily Loans Will Mature Through 2029, Reports Yardi Matrix

The multifamily market has 58,533 properties with loans set to mature over the next five years, representing$525 billionof the total$1.1 trillionof loans currently backed by apartments, according to Yardi Matrix.

Metros with the largest volume of maturities includeAtlanta($34.9 billion),Dallas($26.6 billion),Denver($22.9 billion),Houston($20.8 billion),New York($19.9 billion) andChicago($18.8 billion). Markets with the highest percentage of loans coming due through the end of 2029 areAtlanta(65.9 percent),Denver(56.9 percent),Nashville(56.2 percent),Las Vegas(55.9 percent),Houston(53.6 percent) andChicago(53.2 percent).

More than half of the multifamily loans found in Yardi Matrix's database,$641.8 billion(56.3 percent) was originated by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Next in line, at$187.3 billion(16.4 percent) came from commercial banks, followed by the federal government/HUD ($115.7 billion, 10.1 percent), debt funds (69.9 billion, 6.2 percent), life companies ($67.6 billion, 5.9 percent) and CMBS ($25.2 billion, 2.2 percent).

"Multifamily originations peaked during years with record transaction volume, including 2021 (when$194.7 billionof loans were originated) and 2022 ($209.8 billion), as investor demand reached a high point during a time of strong fundamental performance and low interest rate," note Matrix analysts.

Of the loans in the database,$61.8 billionare set to mature in 2024, with another$84.3 billionin 2025,$89.3 billionin 2026,$77.9 billionin 2027 and$107.3 billionin 2028. By percentage, 5.4 percent of the loans will mature by the end of this year, 12.8 percent by the end of 2025, 27.5 percent by the end of 2027 and 46.1 percent by the end of 2029.

Markets with a high percentage of loans maturing over the short term and recent negative rent growth includeAtlanta,Houston, RaleighDurham,OrlandoandAustin. In addition, markets with strong deliveries and a high percentage of units under construction includeAustin, Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham,Denver,OrlandoandMiami.

Factors that will determine distress include interest rates, strategies around loan extensions, property fundamental, regulatory issues and loan seasoning.

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