Arizona Weatherman’s Summer 2024 Monsoon Forecast for Arizona

According to the Arizona Weatherman, long-term seasonal forecasts are difficult to predict accurately, and changing El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns complicate the forecast process. Especially for the Arizona summer monsoon season. Here is the Arizona Weatherman’s 2024 monsoon forecast. Will it be a wet one or drier than normal?

Thunderstorm imagePhoto byVlad PanovonUnsplash

There are several factors to consider to understand what is in store for Arizona this summer monsoon. One factor is that we are currently experiencing an El Nino this spring. According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), we will transition to neutral conditions “likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with the odds of La Nina by June-August 2024 (60% chance).” This change can influence the monsoon pattern. This would place Arizona under a likely La Nina pattern for the monsoon time frame.

One caution is that the ENSO pattern typically has less correlation to the summer season in Arizona and more correlation to the winter season. However, in Tucson, Arizona, Climatological data gathered from the National Weather Service (NWS) between 2000 and 2023 had 17 La Nina summers, and 9 of those were drier than average. The majority, 53%, were drier. Additionally, another trend for this data is that the vast majority of events, both drier and wetter, tended to fall in two or more years in a row following a trend. The current trend has been below-average rain for the last two years. Based on the La Nina event coupled with the current trend, it leans toward another drier year. This is not conclusive, but it is data to consider for this forecast.

Another consideration for this upcoming season is the impact a La Nina pattern tends to have on the Eastern Pacific tropical season. Typically, a La Nina tends to decrease sea surface temperatures, which in turn reduces the number of potential hurricanes in the basin. This can also reduce the number of hurricanes that can funnel moisture up the Gulf of California. However, it only takes one or two to provide additional moisture to change the end result. Again, this is not conclusive, but it needs to be factored into the calculus for the summer monsoon forecast.

Seasonal Precipitation Forecast for the U.S.Photo byClimate Prediction Center

Another consideration is that the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) July through September 2024 forecast for Arizona precipitation is leaning below normal. See the above graphic for this forecast. The CPC forecast also aligns with the above data trend looking at Arizona's potential drier summer monsoon.

Seasonal Temperature Forecast for the U.S.Photo byClimate Prediction Center

Lastly, the CPC is also forecasting a leaning to likely above-average higher temperatures for Arizona from July through September 2024. The above image indicates this forecast for the state. Again, this forecast aligns with the previously mentioned data for the state.

Therefore, based on the climatological data and the upcoming transition to a La Nina pattern by this summer, the Arizona Weatherman forecasts a hotter and drier monsoon, especially for southern Arizona, the Tucson and Phoenix metro areas. This trend will also likely impact the Mogollon Rim. However, the monsoons are approximate at each location. For instance, last year, the monsoon trended below average for most locations in the state; however, some locations also had higher-than-average rainfall. In any case, monsoon thunderstorms are dangerous and will definitely occur during the season. These will bring strong gusty winds and heavy isolated rain, causing flash flooding, hail, and even weaker tornadic activity. Be prepared when planning outdoor activities, and don’t cross flooded roads, as this poses a serious safety risk.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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