Less than 1.5 percent of registered voters have cast a ballot in Harris County-wide election

In a county with a track record of low-turnout elections , Harris County’s uniform elections on Saturday are on pace for a new low.

Through nine days of early voting, the turnout of registered voters reached just 1.3  percent, according to data from the Harris County Clerk’s Office.

That represents 33,652 voters – 19,500 in person and 14,152 mail-in ballots – out of more than 2.56 million registered voters in the county.

“Even for low-turnout nonpartisan municipal elections, this is still very low turnout,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston.

A tiny fraction of eligible voters will choose the representatives of three countywide seats for the Harris County Appraisal District’s board of directors .

Representatives for the nonpartisan positions previously were appointed by county taxing entities, but a November Texas constitutional amendment required the state’s 50 largest counties to begin elections for the three posts.

The appraisal district elections went relatively unnoticed until recent weeks.

“Even I was caught off guard, and I’m a habitual voter,” said Nancy Sims, a UH political analyst.

A special election for state Senate District 15 across west and north Houston also is failing to draw significant attention.

Sandwiched between the district’s party primaries in March and the primary runoff elections on May 28, turnout in the race to fill the remaining six months of Mayor John Whitmire’s Senate term also is likely suffering from voter confusion and fatigue, Sims said.

Emergency room nurse Molly Cook and state Rep. Jarvis Johnson, D-Houston, are the only two candidates for both May elections. In recent weeks, both candidates admitted they would rather win the May 28 election that puts them on a glidepath for a four-year Senate term over Saturday’s special election.

It is difficult to predict exactly how many people will vote on Saturday’s Election Day, but typically the number of in-person ballots cast doubles that of the early vote, Sims said.

If that is the case on Saturday, countywide turnout is unlikely to eclipse 3 percent of registered voters.

Appraisal district elections widely criticized

The abysmal turnout was predicted.

The constitutional amendment that created the appraisal district elections was widely criticized for adding another set of elections to the already crowded slate in Harris County. The positions are newly elected and part of an often overlooked board, intensifying levels of voter apathy, Rottinghaus said.

State Sen. Paul Bettencourt, R-Houston, drafted the legislation that created the elections as part of a sweeping package aimed at lowering property tax rates.

Within the constitutional amendment overwhelmingly approved by voters in November, large counties were required to begin electing three appraisal district board seats in a bid to increase transparency within appraisal districts, Bettencourt said.

The elections for the board were set for early May to ensure the seats would be nonpartisan and to allow new board members to be seated by the end of the summer ahead of property tax season.

The low turnout was expected but necessary to implement the changes, Bettencourt said Tuesday.

“It doesn’t mean the public doesn’t pick good people, there’s just less that do it,” Bettencourt said. “I hope that motivates them to turn out because every vote really counts.”

After the first round of elections for the board, elections for the three seats will be staggered and held during November even-year elections that typically see higher turnout, Bettencourt said.

However, the decision to hold the first elections in May has left three countywide seats to be chosen during a predictably low turnout election.

Elections in the late spring and summer frequently see lower turnout as citizens travel for vacation and tune out of political coverage, Rottinghaus said.

Despite the confusion over the races, turnout should see a small boost from mail-in ballots, Sims said. State law allows eligible voters to request a mail-in ballot for all elections held in their county in a calendar year. Those automatically mailed ballots should serve as a prompt to vote, even if the voter originally was unaware of the election, Sims said.

Low voter turnout in May elections

The last May countywide election was held in 2022. About 4.76 percent of Harris County’s registered voters weighed in on two state constitutional amendments for that election.

Prior to that, 3.8 percent of the county’s registered voters turned out in 2007 for a state proposition election, according to data from the Harris County Clerk’s office.

Thirteen candidates are running for the three appraisal district seats, meaning no candidate is likely to reach the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff. The runoff elections for the races will be held June 15, a summer-time date that is likely to see similarly low turnout, Rottinghaus said.

Appraisal district elections also are being held in Liberty, Montgomery, Brazoria and Fort Bend counties.

All four are outpacing Harris County in turnout of registered voters, although each county has a handful of other local elections being held May 4.