Pittsburgh’s Prized Prospect Will Take The Mound Tomorrow

By Dan Schlossberg

Finally! After six weeks of procrastination designed to squeeze another year of team control out of him, prized prospect Paul Skenes is about to make his major-league debut.

That will happen tomorrow when the top pick in last year’s amateur draft takes the mound at Pittsburgh’s PNC Park against the Chicago Cubs.

The 6-6, 235-pound righthander is the game’s top pitching prospect after a brilliant college career that included stops at the Air Force Academy and LSU. His earned run average for the national champion Tigers was — are you sitting down? — a microscopic 1.69.

No. 1 draft pick Paul Skenes rocketed from Bradenton to Pittsburgh in less than two months.Photo byPittsburgh Pirates

Already compared to Stephen Strasburg, Gerrit Cole, and David Price as one of the best pitching prospects of the last 20 years, Skenes joins an up-and-coming Pirates team that seems to be slowly percolating as a contender in the weak National League Central.

St. Louis has dropped from worst to first following the retirements of Yadi Molina, Albert Pujols, and Adam Wainwright while Milwaukee is dealing with the departures of Corbin Burnes (traded) and Brandon Woodruff (injured).

The Chicago Cubs have a shot, thanks to Cody Bellinger, Shōta Imanaga, and new manager Craig Counsell, but they always find a way to lose.

That leaves the Pirates and Reds, both of whom are relying on rookies with potential.

None has more than Skenes, already projected as No. 1 pitcher, Cy Young Award contender, and All-Star regular. His fastball has been timed at 102 miles an hour — fast enough to shake the rafters at FanGraphs, MLB.com, and Baseball America. They like his slider too.

In Triple-A this year, Skenes made seven starts, showing scouts he has learned to insert off-speed pitches — a changeup and two-seamer — to fool hitters. Obviously, those additions helped: his AAA marks featured a 0.99 ERA, 42.9 per cent strikeout rate, and 7.6 per cent walk rate. When he’s not striking hitters out, he induces endless ground balls, rarely allowing home runs (just one in his brief AAA tenure).

Already set in the Pittsburgh rotation are fellow control artist Jared Jones, 22, veteran Mitch Keller, and lefties Martin Perez and Marco Gonzalez (out with a forearm strain).

If manager Derek Shelton wants to play mix-and-match, his other choices include Luis Ortiz, Bubba Chandler, Quinn Priester, and Tom Harrington.

Held back so that he wouldn’t break the 172-day minimum that equals a year of service time, Skenes could still overcome that by finishing first or second in voting for National League Rookie of the Year (an award pitchers rarely win). That means he can’t test free agency until the end of the 2029 campaign.

The Pirates started play Thursday third in their division at 17-21, five games behind the front-running Cubs and Brewers, the only NL Central teams that have won more than they lost.

Pittsburgh is in first place, however, when it comes to photogenic ballparks.

The Pirates are also at the top when it comes to frugality. Their payroll of $82,681,585 is the lowest in the National League and 29th among the 30 major-league teams. Teams that bank on rookies can do that — and sometimes win a few games along the way.

Adding Paul Skenes should be a giant step in that direction.

Former AP sportswriter Dan Schlossberg of Fair Lawn, NJ covers the game for forbes.com, Memories & Dreams, USA TODAY Sports Weekly, Sports Collectors Digest, MLB Report, Here’s The Pitch, and other outlets. His email is ballauthor@gmail.com.