2024 Eastern Conference Finals: Celtics vs. Pacers (Analysis, Comparison, Prediction)

The Eastern Conference Finals is set with the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers locked into a new 7-game series. The Celtics finished the regular season with the best record in the NBA (64-18) and sport multiple All-Stars, and the Pacers ranked first in offense (123.3 PPG) this season and have a dynamic duo with Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam .

The Celtics will be considered the favorites in this matchup considering they will be facing the sixth seed in the East, but this series will come down to the finest margins and we have a full analysis, comparison, and prediction.

Celtics vs. Pacers Head-to-Head:

2023-24 Regular Season: Celtics vs. Pacers 3-2

All-Time Playoffs Series: Celtics vs. Pacers 17-12

Starting Lineups

Boston Celtics: Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis*

Indiana Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner

The Celtics boast a starting lineup filled with four All-Stars, both past and present, in Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown , and Jayson Tatum . Starting center Kristaps Porzingis , although initially sidelined for the start of the series, is expected to return and make an impact. Derrick White has been particularly impressive this postseason, averaging 18.2 points per game while shooting 43.5% from beyond the arc. The Celtics' star-studded lineup, combined with White's exceptional form, makes them a formidable opponent.

On the other hand, the Indiana Pacers feature their own blend of talent, headlined by All-Stars Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam. Supporting them are talented shooters Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith, alongside Myles Turner, who can exploit the absence of Porzingis early in the series. Haliburton's playmaking and Siakam's versatility will be crucial for the Pacers as they seek to challenge the Celtics' defensive schemes and star power.

As good as the Pacers have looked, the Celtics have bigger names and more star power. Tatum and Brown are the two best players in the series and they can put a stronghold by having the edge in this category, Boston has the better starting lineup on paper.

*Kristaps Porzingis might miss the first few games of the series but is expected to return at some point.

Advantage: Boston Celtics

Bench

Boston Celtics: Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, Jordan Walsh, Oshae Brissett, Al Horford, Xavier Tillman Sr, Luke Kornet

Indiana Pacers: TJ McConnell, Ben Sheppard, Doug McDermott, Obi Toppin, Jalen Smith, Isaiah Jackson

Boston has opted for a tighter rotation, with Payton Pritchard and Al Horford shouldering the bulk of bench minutes. Both are known for their defensive acumen and high basketball IQ, contributing stability and experience. Sam Hauser, a reliable three-point shooter, adds offensive firepower but can be a liability on defense, while Luke Kornet provides additional size in his limited minutes.

In contrast, the Pacers' bench offers a bit more depth and versatility. TJ McConnell is a tenacious defender and hard-nosed player, bringing intensity and elite defense. Obi Toppin and Isaiah Jackson add size and athleticism, complementing Jalen Smith's versatility. Ben Sheppard, in his rookie campaign, has been a revelation, shooting an impressive 47.4% from three in his first postseason. Doug McDermott adds veteran shooting and spacing, making the Pacers' bench slightly more potent offensively.

Overall, while the Celtics' bench brings defensive stability and experience, the Pacers have a slight edge in terms of depth and firepower. This could provide Indiana with the ability to maintain pressure and scoring when their starters rest.

Advantage: Indiana Pacers

Joe Mazzulla vs. Rick Carlisle

Joe Mazzulla, despite not having the same prestige as Carlisle, has already made a significant impact by leading the Celtics to the Eastern Conference Finals last season. Mazzulla has successfully unified the Celtics, creating a cohesive unit that finished with the best record in the NBA this season, showcasing his ability to maintain the team's top performance throughout the year. His leadership and strategic acumen have earned him credit, even if he lacks Carlisle's extensive resume.

Rick Carlisle, on the other hand, brings a wealth of experience and a championship pedigree, having won the 2011 NBA title with the Mavericks led by Dirk Nowitzki. Known for his elite coaching, Carlisle has guided the Pacers to the number one offense in the NBA, demonstrating his tactical prowess and ability to maximize his team's strengths. While Mazzulla has proven his capabilities by keeping the Celtics at the top of their game, Carlisle's accomplished career and offensive expertise make this a balanced and compelling coaching duel. Both coaches have their strengths, with Mazzulla’s coaching this year evening up Carlisle’s experience.

Advantage: Even

Boston Celtics Advantages

The Boston Celtics possess several key advantages in their matchup against the Indiana Pacers, starting with their star power. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, both in their primes, are elite athletes and scorers, arguably the two best players in the series. Their dynamic offensive capabilities and defensive versatility provide the Celtics with a formidable foundation. The team is further bolstered by the presence of Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, both of whom add defensive prowess and playmaking abilities, while the anticipated return of Kristaps Porzingis adds another dimension to their attack.

The Celtics' recent success in deep playoff runs also plays in their favor. Having reached the NBA Finals two years ago and the Eastern Conference Finals last year, they possess valuable postseason experience and cohesive team chemistry. This momentum, combined with the advantage of having plenty of rest after losing only two games in the playoffs so far, positions the Celtics strongly.

Indiana Pacers Advantages

The Indiana Pacers have the top-ranked offense in the NBA this season. Their exciting and dynamic offensive style has made them a formidable team, capable of scoring efficiently and effectively from multiple positions. Key to their strategy will be the performances of Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner, who have the potential to exploit Boston's interior defense, especially if Kristaps Porzingis does not return quickly.

Under the experienced guidance of coach Rick Carlisle, the Pacers have steadily improved as the season has progressed. Carlisle's championship pedigree and tactical acumen provide a strategic edge that can elevate the team's performance in high-stakes games. For the Pacers to push the series to seven games and beyond, Siakam and Turner must deliver dominant performances, leveraging their size and skill to challenge Boston's defense.

Who Is The Better Team In The Eastern Conference Finals?

The Indiana Pacers will push the Boston Celtics far more than they have been tested so far in the postseason. They have the number one-ranked offense and the presence of Siakam and Turner will make life very difficult for Boston if Porzingis does not return quickly. The goal will be to extend the series as much as possible to come up with the upset. However, the Celtics have more than enough star power even before Porzingis returns.

Tatum and Brown will have their way offensively and will get strong looks on offense throughout the series. Holiday will keep tabs on Haliburton throughout the series, forcing him into difficult offensive sets and forcing him to pass more often than he would like. The Celtics have a major advantage in the matchups featuring Tatum and Brown, and if both play well, the team will likely win the series in six games. If Porzingis returns at least halfway through the series, the Celtics will be able to gain momentum quickly and put away the talented Pacers.

Prediction: Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers 4-2

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