The CaneSport On3: Analyzing biggest surprise area of the defense … why a questionable spot could wind up just fine

The conventional wisdom looking ahead to this season … at least on paper … is that the Miami Hurricanes’ offense should be one of the nation’s best, while the defense is a bit of an unknown.

Today we’re taking a bit of a deeper dive into that defense, in particular the biggest perceived area of concern on that side of the ball: The secondary.

Yes, Miami lost safeties Kam Kinchens and James Williams along with starting cornerbacks Jaden Davis and Te’Cory Couch. The lone fulltime returning starter is Daryl Porter, Jr., who didn’t have an interception, and it’s also worth mentioning that Damari Brown started the final four games as a freshman (he also didn’t have a pick).

The CaneSport On3: Our pick as biggest surprise area on Miami’s offense could be the difference in creating 1 of nation’s most explosive attacks

Miami added one key secondary piece in the portal, Washington’s Mishael Powell, but he was up-and-down at nickel in the spring and could wind up at safety in the fall (he played both for the Huskies). Marshall’s D’yoni Hill was also brought on to compete to start.

So is the secondary a major concern? Of course.

But today’s topic is about the biggest potential surprise on Miami’s D.

And we think that surprise will be that the DBs will hold their own just fine. The reasoning? Well, it’s not based on proven depth or top end talent, neither of which Miami seems to possess.

It’s based on the opponents.

Because, as you look at the 12 teams on the schedule, which ones are really built to take advantage of a Miami secondary that perhaps isn’t up to par?

Let’s break it down:

FLORIDA, GAME 1: Graham Mertz returns, and the former Wisconsin transfer threw for 2,903 yards with 20 TDs and three INTs last season along with an excellent 72.9 completion percentage. With that said, he was sacked 39 times and the Florida offense ranked No. 77 in the nation in passing offense with him at the helm. This is not an explosive returning attack.

FLORIDA A&M, GAME 2: Junior Muratovic and FAU grad transfer Daniel Richardson are both battling for the starting QB job, but neither is going to be a guy who should be able to do much against a program at UM’s level. The Rattlers were 33rd in the nation in passing offense last year, but against a low level of competition.

BALL STATE, GAME 3: Kiael Kelly started the final six games last year at QB, but redshirt freshman Kadin Semonza has also been pushing. As with Florida A&M, there’s no reason to think the Ball State offense will pose a big threat with its passing offense for a program at Miami’s level. This program was 125th in passing offense nationally a year ago.

USF, GAME 4: After a 1-11 2022 season, this program made big strides to get to 7-6 last year. While it’s against a different level of play, QB Byrum Brown did pass for 3,292 yards with 26 TDs and 11 INTs. He also returns top target Sean Atkins (92 receptions for 1,054 yards and seven touchdowns). So while this is a team that last year faced the likes of underwhelming foes Western Kentucky, FAMU, Rice, Navy, UAB, FAU, Temple, UTSA and Charlotte … and struggled against its two main nonconference regular season opponents, Alabama and UConn (290 combined passing yards in both games, 0 TDs and 2 INTs) … this is still a team that could cause some issues for Miami’s secondary. Also of note: Brown added 809 rush yards and 11 more scores on the ground. USF was 31st in the nation in passing offense in 2023, so even if those yards came against lower level teams, there is some talent here passing the ball.

VIRGINIA TECH, GAME 5: A former Baylor backup, QB Kyron Drones, is a rising star after a strong 2023 season at Virginia Tech … as a dual threat. But he only completed 58.2 percent of his passes last year for 17 TDs with three INTs, adding 818 rush yards and three more scores. So it might be a bigger issue for the Miami front seven to contain him vs. a guy who is going to kill you down the field with pinpoint accuracy. The Hokies were 95th in passing offense nationally last year with Drones behind center, so not very good.

CAL, GAME 6: Chandler Rogers threw for 3,382 yards with 29 TDs and 5 INTs last year, adding 180 yards on the ground and four rushing scores. But really it’s RB Jaydn Ott that is the big weapon here and the guy that makes the offense go. This is a team that ranked only No. 71 in passing offense last year.

LOUISVILLE, GAME 7: This could be the biggest challenge as Jeff Brohm has a high-powered attack, but a lot will hinge on Texas Tech transfer QB Tyler Shough. WR Caullin Lacy is expected to star after coming in from South Alabama (had 91 catches, 1,316 yards and 10 TDs last season). Shough was injured last year and threw for 746 yards with seven TDs an 4 INTs along with 149 rush yards and 2 TDs on the ground. The Cardinals were No. 56 in the nation in passing offense last year. This is probably the best passing offense Miami will face.

FSU, GAME 8: DJ Uiagalelei (Oregon State transfer) could be a star, but he struggled with consistency last year and hit on just 57.1 percent of his throws for 2,638 yards with 21 TDs and seven INTs. He added 219 rush yards and seven more scores on the ground. This is going to be a much different-looking offense than a year ago given the pieces FSU loses – and the Seminoles ranked No. 45 in passing offense in 2023.

DUKE, GAME 9: There are QB issues here, and the team hopes Texas transfer Maalik Murphy is the answer. He started two games last year as a redshirt freshman and threw for 477 yards with 3 TDs and 3 INTs. There’s a long road here to become a good offense, as Manny Diaz takes over a team that was 110th in the nation in passing.

GEORGIA TECH, GAME 10: QB Haynes King was inconsistent last year and made mistakes. So while the team does return three of its top four pass catchers, there are questions about this passing attack. He threw for 2,842 yards with 27 TDs and 16 INTs, adding 10 rushing scores. The Yellow Jackets were 66th in the nation in passing offense in 2023.

WAKE FOREST, GAME 11: While the receiving corps is solid, it’s unclear how good the QB play will be, with Louisiana Tech/Boise State transfer Hank Bachmeier the likely guy under center. He threw for 2,058 yards with 10 TDs and 5 INTs last season (his only solid season was 2021 with Boise State when he threw for 20 TDs with 8 INTs). Wake Forest was No. 98 in the nation in passing yards last season.

SYRACUSE, GAME 12: The team added Ohio State transfer Kyle McCord and has back star TE Oronde Gadsden II. McCord seems to be good but not great and the talent around him will be a step down from what he had with the Buckeyes. Of note: McCord threw for 3,170 yards last season with 24 TDs and 6 INTs. Syracuse is coming off a year in which the team ranked No. 114 in passing offense.

The Canes won’t face Clemson and Cade Klubnik or NC State and dynamic WR Kevin Concepcion with transfer QB Grayson McCall. SMU also has a QB expected to be one of the conference’s best (see above graphic) in Preston Stone, and BC has back dynamic QB Thomas Castellanos … and Miami isn’t playing either of them. North Carolina should also have a strong attack even with a QB battle brewing led by Max Johnson … and you won’t find them on the 2024 schedule.

Only one Miami 2024 opponent QB is found in the top 25 for preseason Heisman Trophy odds, and that’s Uiagalelei at No. 18 (Cam Ward checks in at No. 10). After him it’s Drones at No. 30, then Mertz at 54.

As you look at the above opponents, while of course a lot can change year over year, these were just not good passing teams in 2023. Their team passing rankings nationally last year were No. 31 (USF, against lower level competition), 33 (Florida A&M against lower level competition), 45, 56, 66, 71, 77, 95, 98, 110, 114 and 125.

So not a single opponent this year was in the nation’s top 30 in passing offense a year ago, and of the Power Four teams none were ranked better than No. 45.

So perhaps if there is a year for Miami to have issues in the secondary, this is it. There are no real major powerhouse out-of-conference passing offenses, and the Hurricanes are dodging some solid ACC QBs/opponents.

Maybe, just maybe, even a so-so or subpar secondary will be more than good enough to hold up for this year’s Hurricanes team.

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