What to make of Christian McCaffrey extension, Brandon Aiyuk holdout

All is fair in football and contract negotiations. Tuesday marked the start of mandatory (unless you’re willing to be fined) minicamp, and the only two 49ers not in attendance were Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams, the latter of whom is due in Wednesday after his daughter’s graduation.

Aiyuk’s holdout, and whether the 49ers should pay him

Aiyuk’s holdout is to be expected. He will be fined nearly $17,000 on Tuesday alone. Here’s the breakdown, which is identical to the Cowboys’ CeeDee Lamb:
Day 1: $16,953
Day 2: $33,908
Day 3: $50,855

That is per day, tallying to a total of $101,716. Nick Bosa racked up around $2 million in training camp fines in 2023 including preseason games missed, and Aiyuk can rack up $50,000 per day. Bosa's were wiped away when he signed, and the 49ers can do the same for Aiyuk, should it linger that far.

Will this thing drag out? Probably. That was the case with Bosa and Deebo Samuel. The 49ers simply love to get the most value they possibly can in every situation, and that is typically an exhausting situation for players and their agents.

Given that the wide receiver market is exploding with new deals seemingly each week, to the likes of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle, Nico Collins and Justin Jefferson, Aiyuk’s camp will feel strongly about getting value near $30 million per year.

Should the 49ers do that? Sure.

NFL money is seemingly infinite and fake, and the cap goes up every year. Even Amon-Ra St. Brown can be cut by 2026, per OverTheCap’s figures. NFL contracts are getting more obtuse and bloated, but simultaneously malleable by the second.

Aiyuk was the most efficient receiver in the league last year at 17.9 yards per receptions. He had 76 fewer targets than CeeDee Lamb and 405 fewer yards. He is an elite blocker, one of the best route runners in the league, and a reliable man coverage beater.

To not reward him is antithetical to the culture the 49ers have built, premised upon reward their A-tier talent, and objectively makes San Francisco worse. He is more durable than Deebo Samuel and at age 26, projects to produces well into his early 30s. Aside from some halfhearted social media crypticism, he is as low maintenace as it comes. He should be paid handsomely. And if the 49ers don’t want him, a competitor gladly will.

Reading between the lines on McCaffrey’s odd contract

Now, at the same time as Aiyuk seeks that contract, the 49ers extended McCaffrey for two years, adding a couple of semi-tangible contract years before three void years. That doubles down on that rewarding A-tier players thesis.

Previously, McCaffrey had two years left with a couple of void years.

The reality of the extension is this: the 49ers saved themselves some money this and next season, and made McCaffrey happy by guaranteeing the next couple years, plus more on top, along with what is a team option third year.

McCaffrey had a slated $11.8 million base salary this season, plus $8,576,000 in prorated bonus money over this and the next four seasons.

Now, McCaffrey’s 2024 cap hit has dropped from $14.4 million to $6.68 million. He has $28 million in bonus money prorated through 2027, plus $2,858,000 in 2028.

That $28 million in bonuses is effectively just a guarantee two $14 million salaries McCaffrey was slated for, plus a $2,849,000 option bonus in 2025, and his base minimum base salaries. In essence, it’s a guarantee of all the money McCaffrey was slated to earn this and next season, plus about $4 million more.

It feels like a 2+1 deal, where, in 2026, the 49ers could opt in at a cost of $11.91 million to retain a 30-year-old McCaffrey. They’d take a dead cap hit of $12.86 million before June 1 or $5 million after June 1 for a savings of $6.9 million.

The idea that McCaffrey is now making $19 million per year is preposterous. He will not see the $27.46 million cap hit figure in 2027. This is a guaranteed two, plus-maybe-one-year deal.

From McCaffrey’s standpoint, it gives him certainty on his contract, and a bit more, simply by product of being excellent. The 49ers did not have to guarantee him any money, and simply by locking him for the second year (always likely) it’s a win for McCaffrey.

What do the 49ers get out of it? An extra roughly $7 million in cap space and a happier reigning Offensive Player of the Year.

The 49ers plan to lessen the load on McCaffrey

The most interesting thing related to McCaffrey on Wednesday wasn’t even the contract amendment, which is bizarre. Look at the option bonuses on this freakish piece of Paraag Marathe’s handiwork (per OverTheCap).

What is eyebrow-raising is the fact Kyle Shanahan indicated he intends to lessen the wear on McCaffrey. It was evident that he wore down, especially with a calf injury, as the season went last year.

He had a league-leading 339 touches in the regular season, and that was with one game missed. This comes after a 329-touch season in 2022, preceded by two injury-derailed ones in Carolina.

Shanahan admitted Tuesday the 49ers need to lessen that burden when asked whether it was wise to continue the bell-cow trend.

"I mean, I don't think it always needs to be that case with all the runs," Shanahan said. "We've got guys that can run the ball and stuff. We've got to protect Christian from himself. He doesn't like to ever come out, no matter what the situation is and I do think it's something we can protect him with more.

"When you are such a threat in the pass game, it's a little bit different. When you get touches from a running back, a lot of times you're the last choice just everyone's deep and you throw it to a check down. So halfbacks can get six targets in the game without one play called for them. Just because they're in checkdowns a lot. So how do we feel about those touches? Man, I'm glad he's out there for that checkdown. That means, no one's around and it's getting up the field and he's as good of a threat on the checkdowns as there can be.

"But if he's just taking the wear and tear with 20 carries and stuff every game, he's definitely good enough to do that. He's proven he can stay healthy, but I'd like to take some of that off him and give it to other guys also."

In short, the 49ers may look to limit how many running carries McCaffrey takes.

San Francisco is very well prepared to do this. They have Elijah Mitchell for a final year and however long he can stay healthy, Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo, who is the greatest unknown with the greatest upside. Cody Schrader could be a sneak-onto-the-practice squad addition, too.

Beyond that, the addition of Ricky Pearsall (and Jacob Cowing) means that the 49ers can give Deebo Samuel a blow, and keep him fresh. Keeping both Samuel and McCaffrey healthy going into the playoffs has to be a priority, and there is a strong argument to be made that Samuel is more effective in the backfield. Shanahan also leaned on McCaffrey’s receiving chops.