Abortion vote could swing on question of ‘circumstances’

A vast majority of Arizonans believe that abortion should be legal in at least certain circumstances.

But whether that's enough to secure voter approval of a ballot measure in November to enshrine the right to terminate a pregnancy in the Arizona Constitution remains uncertain. And the key is that question of "circumstances.''

The survey by Noble Predictive Insights conducted last month found 40% of registered voters questioned believe the procedure should be legal under any circumstances. That includes 19% of Republicans questioned, 63% of Democrats and 41% of independents.

At the other extreme, it found only 11% who believe abortions should not be allowed at any time, including 18% of Republicans, 5% of Democrats and 8% of unaffiliated voters.

What that leaves, however, is that 49% in the middle. And where they land on the yes-no spectrum and how they will vote in November could come down to what would be the exceptions from any ban.

At one extreme, 85% of that middle group said they support abortion in cases of endangerment to the mother's life.

That is the one exception built into the territorial-era law which the Arizona Supreme Court ruled in April is enforceable, though the justices have delayed enforcement of that order for at least three months. In the interim, Arizona operates under a 15-week ban, albeit with no exceptions for rape or incest.

On that subject, 82% of those in the middle say they would support a law that allows abortion if a pregnancy is the result of rape, with 78% expressing the same views in cases of incest.

But support drops to 57% if the issue is allowing abortion in cases where the baby is likely to have severe disabilities or health problems.

Potentially more significant is the calendar.

As crafted, the initiative to enshrine the right of abortion into the Arizona Constitution would allow a woman to terminate a pregnancy for any reason up to the point of fetal viability, generally considered between 22 and 24 weeks. But of those who say support for abortion is dependent on circumstances, just 9% are comfortable at that point.

That could be barely enough to push the measure over the top combined with the 40% of Arizonans who want no state restrictions on the procedure.

By contrast, 43% of those in the middle said they are willing to support the right to terminate a pregnancy, but only up to 15 weeks, the current state of Arizona law.

More problematic for supporters could be arguments by foes of the initiative that, as worded, actually allows a pregnancy to be terminated at any point. That is based on language in the measure which allows abortion after fetal viability "that, in the good faith judgment of a treating health care professional, is necessary to protect the life or physical or mental health of the pregnant individual.''

It Goes Too Far, the organization that has been formed to battle the ballot measure, is focusing on that section in a bid to convince voters to reject the initiative.

On its website, it claims that exemption includes not only those struggling with mental health issues but also "a woman who simply changes her mind or is experiencing stress.''

"The mental health exception has been abused and become a well-known work around to rubber stamp any request for a late term abortion,'' the organization claims, though it cites no specific data or research.

What makes that important is that, of the 49% of Arizonans who say they could support abortion rights under some circumstances, just 1% said they would agree to an abortion beyond 24 weeks.

Numbers aside, it also is unclear exactly how effective is that argument about how the ballot measure here would result in late-term abortions.

There was a similar argument in Ohio in 2022 when voters were deciding a nearly identical ballot measure to guarantee a right to abortion.

"It allows abortion at any point in the pregnancy,'' argued Gov. Mike DeWine in urging people to defeat what was known as Issue 1. "A majority of people in Ohio, if you ask them, 'Do you believe abortion should be able to occur late, late into the term,' most of them are going to say 'no.' ''

That, however, turned out not to be true as Ohio voters approved the measure by a 13-point margin.

Votes for or against the initiative itself, there's a separate question of how much a candidate's views on the issue of abortion will affect a decision by a voter whether to support or oppose him or her.

David Byler, the chief of research at Noble Predictive Insights, found that more than 50% of the 1,003 people questioned said a candidate's position on abortion is at least somewhat impactful on how they feel about a candidate.

But fewer than a third of those who responded listed abortion as one of the top three issues facing the state. And only one in eight identify it as being the top issue on their minds.

So what do they care about?

Immigration was No. 1 on the list of the most important issue for 22% of those asked, followed by inflation at 19%. After abortion at 12%, farther back were health care at 7%, education at 4%, with taxes and unemployment at 3% each.

"Voters say that abortion will influence their vote,'' Byler said.

"But so will inflation, immigration, housing, and so many issues,'' he said in a prepared statement. "Both sides have strong messages on different issues. And that’s why it’s such a competitive election.''

The online, opt-in survey, weighted to reflect demographics, has a margin of error of 3.1%

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