Potential Tropical Cyclone One headed to Mexico. Heavy rain risk through Wednesday.

And there it is…first cone of the season with “Potential Tropical Cyclone One.”

Reminder, Potential Tropical Cyclone was a term released a few years ago for systems that are not yet “officially” a tropical depression or storm, however, they are likely to bring impacts to land areas. Thus, the National Hurricane Center wants to give advanced notice of those impacts.

The forecast track aimed at Mexico with heavy rain, coastal flooding and breezy conditions expected far away from the center. This system will likely become a depression or Tropical Storm Alberto before landfall on Wednesday or Thursday.

Tropical storm watches issued for south Texas meaning tropical storm conditions possible within next 48 hours.

For south Louisiana, the impacts remain unchanged. Scattered downpours & localized flash flood risk for our area this evening, tomorrow & Wednesday along with minor coastal flooding of up to 1 to 2 feet and breezy conditions.

By Thursday and into the weekend, as rain chances begin to drop, the heat will ramp up. Highs will be in the low to middle 90s with temperatures that will feel like the lower 100s.

Something else to note longer term is that model guidance isn’t overly clear on if anything will materialize.

By the late weekend, in roughly seven days, a new impulse of moisture is worth monitoring as the southern Gulf and Caribbean look to stay stormy. This feature may have a window of opportunity to develop, however, regardless of actual development, rain chances may again increase by late next weekend along the western Gulf Coast.

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