Breezy, scattered storms continue. Let’s break down the latest on the tropics

NEW ORLEANS ( WGNO ) — Lots to watch, nothing to worry about along the Northern Gulf Coast. The average date of the first named storm is June 20, and right on cue, we’ve got things to monitor. First two names on the list are #Alberto & #Beryl .

First things first, Potential Tropical Cyclone One’s forecast remains unchanged.

Likely to become #TropicalStormAlberto before landfall in Mexico/South Texas Wednesday. Sizeable heavy rainfall event for sections of south Texas.

For south Louisiana, scattered downpours & localized flash flood risk for today & Wednesday along with minor coastal flooding(1-2ft), & breezy conditions.

We get hotter & drier by late week/weekend. We may near Heat Advisory criteria with feels-like temps 100-108.

In addition, National Hurricane Center is now highlighting a low, 20% chance of development over the next 7 days in the southern Gulf & Bay of Campeche.

Euro ensembles remain the most bullish with 60+% chance of tropical depression or tropical storm development.

Overnight model guidance continues to provide a few more clues about the upcoming steering pattern. More guidance now maintains the thought that the ridge over the southern U.S. will keep any tropical mischief pinned in the southern Gulf, preventing this disturbance from lifting towards the northern Gulf.

More likely scenario: A quicker/faster piece of energy lifting northwest gets steered into Mexico(similar to our present Potential Tropical Cyclone) due to strong high pressure over the central U.S.

Less likely scenario: A later/slower developing, slower moving disturbance may have more of a window to lift northward by early next week…as a front will begin to erode away the high to the north of this disturbance.

It’s something worth checking back in on over the next few days as the steering pattern becomes more fine-tuned.

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