One of the surprises of the current election cycle has been the meaningful increase in support for former President Donald Trump among black voters, a historically Democratic voting bloc.
On Monday, CNN senior political data reporter Harry Enten told viewers that at this point in 2020, 86% of black voters backed President Joe Biden, while 7% supported Trump. Currently, Biden’s share of the black vote is 70% compared to 21% for Trump.
The picture changes considerably when the data are broken down by age groups. Enten explained that while Biden’s support among black voters over the age of 50 has fallen from 83% to 74% over the last four years, his support among black voters under 50 has plunged by a whopping 50% from 80% to 37%. By anyone’s standards, that’s a pretty stunning drop.
“It’s not just that Joe Biden is losing ground; it’s that Donald Trump is gaining ground,” Enten said. “I keep looking for signs that this is going to go back to normal, and I don’t see it. If anything, we’re careening toward a historic performance for the Republican presidential candidate, the likes of which we have not seen in six decades.”
According to Enten, “If this polling is anywhere near correct, we are looking at a historic moment right now where black voters under the age of 50, which have historically been such a big part of the Democratic coalition, are leaving it in droves.”
There are several reasons why black voters might be moving to the Republican Party. Maybe they are finally waking up to the fact that, despite their decadeslong loyalty to the Democratic Party, they really haven’t gotten much in return.
Scott Turner, the executive director of the White House Opportunity and Revitalization Council during the Trump administration and a former NFL player, enumerated the administration’s many accomplishments for the black community in a 2021 National Review op-ed. Until the pandemic brought the robust Trump economy to a screeching halt, black unemployment had fallen to 5.2% and “black labor-force participation reached 63.2%,” he noted.
While a strong economy lifts all boats, it was the Trump administration’s implementation of economic “opportunity zones” in struggling communities that “created approximately 500,000 jobs” for black people and “lifted nearly 1 million people out of poverty.”
Second, the Trump administration’s passage of the First Step Act, “the most sweeping criminal justice reform legislation in a generation … reformed the sentencing laws that have wrongly and disproportionately harmed black communities for decades.”
Finally, Trump “made key strategic changes to strengthen our historically black colleges and universities.”
Turner, who is black, noted that “Democrats may not have noticed all the work Republicans did for the black community, but black voters sure did.”
And unlike Biden, Trump has reached out to black Americans on the campaign trail. In addition to his rally in the South Bronx last month, Trump traveled to Detroit on Saturday to attend a community roundtable with the city’s black business leaders where he received an extremely enthusiastic welcome .
Hours later, he wowed the crowd at a Detroit rally called “The People’s Convention.” The event was hosted by Turning Point Action. Rallygoers roared with approval when Trump said , “We are going to fire crooked Joe Biden. We are going to evict the Biden crime family from the White House and we are going to Make America Great Again.”
Although some might disagree, the Democrats’ weaponization of the law against Trump may be contributing to his strength among black voters, particularly among black men. Perhaps their most serious miscalculation was the decision to take and release a mug shot following Trump’s arrest in Fulton County, Georgia, last August.
The most immediate consequence of this colossal blunder was that it instantly catapulted Trump to “legend” status in the eyes of the black men who lined the streets as his motorcade wound its way to the Fulton County jail. They may have seen the mug shot as a symbol of “the man” sticking it to “the people,” a feeling with which they are intimately familiar.
At the time, rappers Chief Keef and Lil Pump showed their support for Trump on social media. Lil Pump posted his own mug shot next to Trump’s on Instagram with the caption, “Free Trump.” Chief Keef posted a photo of Trump flashing a gang symbol, saying, “he good in da hood,” and predicted that if Trump ever gets convicted, he would “run the prison.”
In a video that went viral on X, @TONYxTwo told a reporter, “Yes. … Look what happened to Martha Stewart. She caught that felony. She goes to all the cookouts. With Snoop Dog. She is endorsed. … Bro, Trump is a brother now.”
Whatever the reasons are for the swing toward Trump among black voters, it’s important to note that just a small percentage shift in support from this critical voting bloc can turn an election. Especially if it’s a close one.
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Elizabeth Stauffer is a contributor to the Washington Examiner and the Western Journal . Follow her on X or LinkedIn .
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